Hamburg – Dortmund

Hamburger SV takes on the rejuvenated Borusia Dortmund at Imtech Arena, with both sides in bad need of points.

The home side gained just one draw in the last three matches and is now sitting a single point above the relegation zone, on the 15th spot. The defense has been especially bad, leaking goals, most notbaly the 0-8 drubbing at the hands of Bayern. Hamburg is in serious trouble and will try to avoid entering one of their famous horrible bad runs, but hosting Dortmund will not make it easy for them.

Dortmund finally got their act together and are playing at the top of their potential. Improvement can still be made on the defensive end, but Borussia managed to put together a consistent run of 5 consecutive wins in Germany, 4 of them in Bundesliga, scoring seemingly for fun – last time out it was an enchanting 3-0 at home against Schalke. In these conditions Dortmund climbed from the last place to being just 8 points away from the last Champions League spot, but they need to keep winning. With Champions League football coming up two weeks from now, this game is a real opportunity that Klopp does not want to miss.

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Team news & lineups:

Hamburg will not be able to count on Holtby, Rajkovic, Lasogga, Ostrzolek and Diaz, while Olic is highly doubtful and van der Vaart could start on the bench. Dortmund will not have Großkreutz, Durm, Piszczek and possibly Sahin, but the big blow is represented by Marco Reus’ fitness issues and he might miss the game, or at least not make the starting lineup.

Hamburger SV: Drobny – Diekmeier, Djourou, Cleber, Jansen – Kacar, Jiracek – Muller, Stieber, Gouaida – Rudnevs

Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller – Kirch, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer – Bender, Gundogan – Mkhitaryan, Kagawa, Kampl – Aubameyang

This will probably be an interesting game and if we see a goal in the first half, it could open up big time. Dortmund to win is the obvious bet and I do think that Klopp’s men will grind out a tight one, but Hamburg will put up a fight and the odds are too low. I will bet on the under over market here, as Borussia should score a couple and Hamburg can punish the shaky Dortmund defense on the breaks.

Expect an entertaining match with over 2,5 goals to show for, so that will be my tip. If Dortmund has a good day they can cover the over by themselves, but I think it will be a tight one with both teams scoring. Prediction: Hamburger SV – Borussia Dortmund 1-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.56
Event date: 7 March