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Not the most appealing match on paper here in the first round in Basel, but surely a very interesting one from a betting perspective.
It hasn`t been the best hard court season for the romanian no 1. Victor Hanescu (76 ATP) so far, Victor being winless on this surface since April and losing 8 matches in a row. Despite being 2 meters tall, Hanescu is a pure claycourter, his serve is good but not scary and he has a poor record on hard courts overall. Nevertheless he can play good tennis on any surface and he got some good wins on hard over the time, including defeating guys like Janowicz or Gulbis in the last 12 months. The romanian had a solid season overall, including semifinal showings at Gstaad and Stuttgart in the summer, plus wins against players like Paire (twice), Tursunov (twice), Tomic, Janowicz or Youzhny.
Kamke (81 ATP) himself is not in the best form, but he had some decent results in the last 3 months, like winning Petange challenger or reaching Metz quarters. However, if you look closely the german is really not impressive right now – his best win in the post Wimbledon hard court season was over Berankis, and he did not defeat any top 100 players. Kamke lost the last two matches in straight sets against Gicquel and Sijsling.
Apparently Kamke holds the upper hand in this one considering he`s a hard court player and Hanescu is in horrible form but at a closer look, things are not so simple. Hanescu may have lost his last 8 hard court matches, but he is clearly improving lately. His last three games were against top-class hard courters like Pospisil, Tipsarevic and Anerson – Hanescu won a set in all of them and was unlucky to come up empty handed. He lost against Khachanov in St. Petersburg, but the young russian showed in the next tournament that he is the real deal (beating Ramos, Tipsarevic). Further advantages for Hanescu today are being an overall better player than Kamke, and the fact that Kamke himself is in poor short-term form.
The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Kamke, he demolished Hanescu in Australian Open 2012 (6-2 6-1 6-2). While I don`t think Kamke has an advantage in match-up, the H2H must be taken into account here considering the score in that match.
I don`t think Kamke deserves to be priced so low against a better player that has shown better tennis than him in the last 2-3 weeks. Hanescu`s form is misleading, as he`s clearly improving, and after tight games against top players he could be on track to record his first post-Wimbledon hard court win today. Hanescu has improved his first serve percentage in each of the last 2 games and that`s a big advantage for him. When he puts in most of his first serves, he is hard to beat. His second serve is rather poor. I would add that Kamke is an inconsistent player and can lose to pretty much anyone on a bad day, so my input is that a low-medium stake on Hanescu is a good call here. My prediction is Hanescu – Kamke 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Hanescu
Odds: 3.18 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 10.9
Event date: 21 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick lost his last 5 tennis tips
