Hannover – Freiburg

Hannover 96 and Freiburg fight for survival in the Bundesliga, as the German league comes to an end today. The two sides are tied in points, 1 point over the playout position and 2 points over the first relegating spot. A draw would ensure both sides avoid direct relegation – and for Freiburg it would actually mean salvation.

The hosts recorded a huge win over Augsburg last round, 2-1 on the road, their first victory in Bundesliga since January – previously going no less than 16 consecutive matches without a win. Draws have kept the hosts alive in this second part of the season and a draw is what Hannover needs to avoid direct relegation – though only a win would 100% ensure Bundesliga survival.

Freiburg shocked the Bundesliga last round with their last minute 2-1 win over Bayern, their first success in 7 matches. The visitors often left the impression that they are better than their recent results, but beating Bayern was clearly not expected. Freiburg needs a draw to be sure of staying in the Bundesliga.

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Team news: Sakai, Hoffmann, Miller and Pander are out for Hannover 96, while Freiburg won’t be able to count on Sorg and Daehli today.

The draw is the logical result here, as nobody wants to risk too much and get relegated, when they can at least play in the playouts if the result is tied. Furthermore, if Stuttgart, doesn’t win in Paderborn, Hannover and Freiburg will avoid even the playout position with a draw – and Stuttgart doesn’t have an easy game, hell, they might not even risk a win themselves.

Finally, these two teams are so evenly matched in both quality and form and they are so prone to draws that a tied result would be the normal outcome even without these special circumstances. Hannover has 4 draws in the last 7 games, while Freiburg has 3 in the last 6. This one is reminiscent of the classic late season Serie A or Serie B draws and even though Germany is not Italy, you have to feel the odds on the draw are too high.

I will grab this value bet with both hands, so my tip is for this match to finish undecided. Prediction: Hannover – Freiburg 0-0.

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.60 @ Bet365
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 15.6
Event date: 23 May