Harlequins – Exeter

Harlequins will attempt to keep their Aviva Premiership playoff hopes alive when they host second placed Exeter Chiefs at Twickenham Stoop. Odds on the home side have plummeted after Exeter announced a weakened lineup for this game.

Harlequins had a rather mediocre season so far overall, particularly in the Challenge Cup (where they got knocked out in the group stage). They are doing better in the Premiership though. Right now, Quins are on the 6th place in the league and still have an outside shot at reaching the playoffs from the 4th place, though the main objective is to secure a Top 6 spot and qualify for the Champions Cup. They are on the back of a 19-40 defeat at Saracens, ending a 2 match winning streak.

Exeter Chiefs is currently second in the standings and they assured a playoff position, but are fighting to finish as high as possible for a better seeding and home court advantage. Chiefs seem to be the most in form team in the league, winning 5 in a row and riding a 12 match unbeaten streak. Nevertheless, Chiefs are starting to lose players due to injuries and the impact was obvious last round, where they barely beat the worst team in the league, Bristol, by 4 points at home.

Bet on Harlequins v Exeter and claim your 100% (100 Eur) freebet at Ohmbet now!

Team news & lineups:

Harlequins will only make three changes to the side that lost against Saracens last week, one of them being the return of Wallace after a 3 month absence. Exeter will change almost their entire lineup for this game due to injuries but also due to a choice of resting players.

Harlequins: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Marland Yarde, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Danny Care (c), 8 Mat Luamanu, 7 Luke Wallace, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 James Horwill, 4 Charlie Matthews, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Rob Buchanan, 1 Joe Marler

Exeter: 15 Phil Dollman, 14 Olly Woodburn, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 James Short, 10 Henry Slade, 9 Jack Maunder, 8 Kai Horstmann, 7 Don Armand, 6 Dave Ewers, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Dave Dennis, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Jack Yeandle (c), 1 Carl Rimmer

Exeter was really poor against the disastrous Bristol last round and they were very lucky to escape with the 38 – 34 win. It was a warning sign in terms of fitness and fatigue, so the Chiefs will take precautions this time around, resting most of their best players, along with the guys which are already injured.

Coach Baxter himself stated that the team is bruised and bumped up, tired after a hard game last week, with many guys in need of a rest. He also stated that it`s not that important to him if Exeter finishes the regular season 2nd or 3rd – saying home court advantage is not a big objective and that he`s just happy the team already secured Top 4 and a playoff spot.

It`s a stretch to say that Exeter made a calculated decision to forfeit this game, but it`s obvious that they are willing to risk a loss for the sake of their long term fitness.

Fact is that the Harlequins lineup simply looks stronger here, with plenty of International level players set to take on what is mostly a “B” Exeter team. The visitors don`t even have much of an advantage on the bench, as you would normally expect – as most of their top guys are outside the match squad completely.

Harlequins are fighting for their lives right now trying to protect their Top 6 placement, maybe make an unlikely push for the playoffs. They will use their best players and have been fantastic at home this year, losing just once on their home turf.

Quins at home are a different rugby team and can definitely mix it up with the best of them – already beating arguably the best team in the league (Saracens) and other top clubs like Bath or Northampton. Desperate for a win and against a very weakened Exeter lineup, Harlequins should normally be able to claim victory here.

Exeter’s form and confidence will still make the dangerous, but they just don`t look like having enough to push for a win at such a tough ground like Twickenham Stoop. My tip is Harlequins to win and odds might continue dropping on the bet. Prediction: Harlequins – Exeter Chiefs 31 – 23.

Pick: Harlequins
Odds: 1.91 @ Betsafe
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 14 April