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Pierre-Hugues Herbert faces world No.2 Novak Djokovic on home soil, in Paris, in what surely is the most important match of his life.
Herbert is a young and talented player, but at 22 years old and with a career high ranking of only 182 he surely won`t make too much noise in the ATP circuit over the next years. While he is talented, he does not have anything special. His game consists on a very good first serve, great volley and decent groundstrokes. He has a two-handed backhand and he likes to come at the net very often, usually playing serve & volley. His second serve is dirt poor. He usually loses big, since his attacking game can result in a flurry of unforced errors or passing shots from the opponents. Herbert was in very poor form prior to Paris, losing 5 out of the last 6 matches against players like Ungur, Haider Maurer or Pau. However, the frenchman played some of the best tennis of his life this week, getting past qualies (def. Zeballos and De Schepper) before dismantling Paire 6-2 6-2 in the first round.
Djokovic of course is a couple of levels above Herbert, the difference between the two is not even worth mentioning. Novak is in excellent form right now, winning his last two tournaments at Shanghai and Beijing, while also bringing 2 points for Serbia in the Davis Cup tie against Canada. Previously he reached the US Open final, losing to Nadal. Djokovic is a guy that loves to win matches by a big margin, being well known for blowing out opponents with scores like 6-0 6-1 in the early rounds of tournaments. His defensive style and fantastic movement makes it extremely hard for average players to win points and games against him.
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These two players never met, being at totally different levels. However, it is clear that the match-up is favorable to the serbian. Djokovic will destroy Herbert`s poor second serve and will pass him easily when he comes at the net. From the baseline it`s a no contest. The frenchman will struggle mightly to win even 2 consecutive points against Novak, he does not have the tools to do it. His first serve is his only asset for this encounter, but it`s not like he has a Raonic-like serve.
Novak covered the 6,5 spread in each of his last 3 first tournament matches (vs. Berankis, Rosol and Granollers). As I said, this is an encounter between a player that often wins big and a vastly inferior player that is a good match-up for him and often loses big, so Nole covering the spread apparently is a no-brainer. The issue here is how motivated will Novak be in the last tournament of the year before the World Tour finals. Paris is well known for the surprises it produces, with the top players either refusing to participate or playing way below their potential. Nevertheless, I think Djokovic is very focused and he will try to win the title this year. He wants the No.1 spot back and he can gain a lot of points here in Paris, since he was beaten by Querrey in the 2nd round last year, so no points to defend. He also looked extremely fresh in the indoor season, unlike other years, so there is no tiredness that could force him to take things easy. He had 2 weeks of rest after Shanghai, enough time to charge his batteries. Plus, of course, Nole doesn`t need to be even close to his best in order to easily defeat a player like Herbert.
Expect the in-form serbian to outplay an out of sorts Herbert, hitting him with 2nd serve returns, passing shots and baseline consistency. My pick is Pierre-Hugues Herbert – Novak Djokovic 3-6 1-6. The odds are going down. My tennis form has been horrible lately so I will wager 8 units on what I see as a 10 unit bet.
Pick: Djokovic (-6,5)
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.08
Event date: 29 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick lost his last 8 tennis tips
