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Hertha did not win in their last four games but a good start finds the capital side on the 10th spot in the standings, an honorable placement. The hosts have a very, very good team. They play possession football and aside for the top guns like Dortmund and Bayern, they can hustle with everybody and win any game. Just two weeks ago they held Stuttgart to 30% possession in the first half. Hertha has been a little bit unlucky in the last four games, they could have won at lease one of them.
Three straight wins to kick start the league campaign were enough to leave Mainz supporters dreaming that they could achieve another surprisingly good season, like they did a couple of years ago. But they are not the same team, they sold a lot of players in the last seasons, including star striker Szalai this summer. The lack of quality in the side has eventually surfaced and now the visiting side is on a run of 4 consecutive defeats in all competition, including losing twice with 4-1 (to Hannover and Leverkusen). Mainz has just 1 more point than Hertha and stands 2 places higher on the 8th position.
After seeing his team knocked out from the cup this week, Hertha`s manager took the blame for resting most starters and vowed to do everything in his power to fix the mistake with a win against Mainz. As far as team news are concerned, the hosts will miss Baumjohann, Krugge and Brooks for this game. Mainz does not have big squad problems.
Hertha is the better side and plays better football. Their recent results are circumstantial, while for Mainz they are rather relevant. The hosts have relegated twice in the last four years and they know that if they start to enter a bad series of results they will be in trouble. At home, the Berlin side will hold the ball about 60% of the time and pump at that hesitant Mainz defense for 90 minutes, a situation in which it’s hard to think the visitors will hold on. Chances are this solid Hertha team will finally win again, and the odds are very tasty. My call is 2-1, after a game dominated by the capital side.
Pick: Hertha Berlin
Odds: 2.10 @ William Hill
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.7
Event date: 28 September
Editor Facts
- Ocean is 12 for 15 in September
