Rockets – Warriors

Game 7 of the Western Conference finals will see the Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors on Monday night, with the victor of this game set to win not only the West, but probably the NBA finals as well. It is fair to say that this will be the real final of the 2018 NBA season, so there`s no doubt that it`s one of the biggest games in recent years.

After coming back from 1-2 down to take a 3-2 lead in the series thanks to two narrow wins, the Rockets were blown out of the building in Game 6 at Oracle Arena. Golden State won by 29 points and held Houston to just 25 points in the second half (including 9 points in the 4th quarter)! The Rockets had the excuse of missing Chris Paul in that Game 6, but they might need to play without him yet again in Game 7.

The Warriors will feel they could have already won this series, as they were up 2-1 and had a 12 point fourth quarter lead in Game 4 at home. However, they blew it, and followed that up with another tight loss to go down 3-2. They responded well in Game 6 and will feel they have both the quality and the momentum to finish the job tonight.

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Team news: Chris Paul is the big question mark for tonight. He is questionable after spraining his hamstring late in Game 5, and it seems like he will be a game time decision. The Warriors have Iguodala and Looney questionable. According to reports Iguodala is unlikely to play, while Looney has good chances to be on the court.

The Rockets will hope that Chris Paul can play, because their chances without their second best player in an elimination game against the Warriors would be extremely slim. Unfortunately for the Rockets, it appears as he is rather unlikely to be on the court. A hamstring sprain does not heal in 4 days, and if this would have been any other game he would be definitely out. Even if Paul plays, he won`t be at his best, and he`ll probably be limited in minutes.

Paul or no Paul, the Warriors should claim victory in this Game 7 and advance to their 4th straight final. Not only are they the better team, but they also have all the momentum after demolishing the Rockets in the second half of Game 7.

A fair point can be made that even with the series tied at 3-3, the Warriors have proved to be superior in this series. They won their games by an average margin of 27.7 points (!!!), while the Rockets won two of their games by the skin of their teeth – and at least one of those was gifted to them by Golden State.

Look for the Warriors to come out firing and show their Championship DNA. They dropped the Durant ISO ball which hurt them in Games 4 & 5, and played their famous brand of team basketball in Game 6, moving the ball. Curry and Thompson have found their shooting touch and will be a scary prospect for the Rockets to defend, not to mention that Kevin Durant should also have a good game after struggling in the last two – a player like him is unlikely to have three bad nights in a row.

Even with Chris Paul healthy the Warriors would be the clear cut favorites to win. With the best case scenario for the Rockets being a hobbled and limited Paul, even an average performance by Golden State should be enough for the Dubs. My tip is the Warriors to cover the -6 point (asian) handicap. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Houston Rockets 112 – 98.

Pick: Warriors -6
Odds: 1.83 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.30
Event date: 29 May