Rockets – Spurs

The Houston Rockets will host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals, with the series currently tied at 1-1. Spurs will have to do without Tony Parker, who was just ruled out for the entire playoffs.

The Rockets (3rd seed) have been really good in these playoffs, making relatively light work of a good OKC team in the first round (4-1) and managing to steal a game from the Spurs in San Antonio. “Steal” might be the wrong word, as Houston came out guns blazing in Game 1 and dominated from start to finish, winning by 27 – but they could have easily won by 40+ points.

San Antonio (2nd seed) came back to win Game 2 by 25 points, but the game was actually close for 3 quarters and only a big 4th quarter allowed the Spurs to win by so much. Now the Spurs need to figure a way to improve on the road, as they were not good away from home in the previous round, which they won 4-2 against Memphis.

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Team news: San Antonio’s starting point guard, Tony Parker, got injured late in Game 2 and he will be out for the rest of the playoffs. While Tony P is not the same All Star caliber player he used to be at 35 years old, he is still a key piece for the Spurs and he will be missed.

San Antonio might have problems in the first game without Parker. He was great in Game 2 (8-13 shooting, real +/- of +14) and he is their second go-to guy when it comes to driving in the paint. Without Tony, Spurs will not be able to penetrate through anybody else besides Kawhi Leonard, and that will make Houston`s job do defend the paint easier.

Fact is that Houston was the better team in the first two games, their 27 point win felt like a 40 point win, while San Antonio`s 25 point win was much closer than the score suggests.

James Harden shot just 3 of 17 for Houston in Game 2, while Kawhi Leonard shot 13-16 for the Spurs. Such a discrepancy between the best players of two teams is rare, and Spurs should actually be concerned that they needed a big 4th quarter (33-13) to pull away in these circumstances.

San Antonio has been the better side overall this season, they are more accomplished and still have a good shot to win this series, even without Tony P – as they are a team that can definitely deal with the loss of a starter, due to their excellent strategy and chemistry. However, the first game without Parker could be one of adjustments, when they figure out what they need to do through trial and error. With Houston at home and Harden due a big game, the Rockets should be able to go up 2-1 here.

News about Parker being ruled out are relatively fresh, so I wouldn`t be surprised if odds on Houston drop a bit. My tip is the Rockets to cover the 5 point spread, I feel the line is accessible and well worth a bet. Prediction: Houston Rockets – San Antonio Spurs 115 – 100.

Pick: Rockets -5
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.32
Event date: 6 May