Hungary – Kazakhstan

Hungary will meet Kazakhstan in Budapest, a friendly match that has no real value for either side (both not qualified for the World Cup) or to the players, who just want to go on vacation. The stands are also expected to be mostly empty, so these are the circumstances in which the game will be played.

Hungary looked really poor in the qualification group for the World Cup, despite finishing 3rd ahead of Turkey. They got some circumstantial results but overall it was obvious they had no business even challenging for a World Cup spot, even losing 1-8 to Netherlands in the last group game. In the last few weeks Hungary played 2 friendly games, a 2-2 draw against Denmark and a 1-0 win against Albania (by a late penalty). The hosts will not be able to count on a couple important players today so they will not use their best possible lineup.

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Kazakhstan played just 1 match in the last 8 months, a 1-1 draw with Lithuania on the road in March. The visitors finished 5th in the World Cup qualifying group with just 5 points, a disappointing performance as they were expected to improve after some decent results in the last few years. Kazakhstan has serious problems scoring or creating chances, but against second rate opposition they are usually able to play good, disciplined defensive football and avoid conceding too many goals.

In normal circumstances Hungary should be expected to defeat Kazakhstan at home, but I reckon the bookies are making a big mistake giving Hungary odds like this is an official match, after all it is just a friendly and it won`t be played in the most exciting conditions. The hosts will not use their absolute best lineup, nobody really wants to play this game and the sad atmosphere in the stands will make it even more slow paced (against Albania there were roughly 3000 spectators). Against a team that can defend and will come in Budapest hoping for a draw, there`s every chance Hungary will have problems creating chances. This really smells like an upset so I was planning to tip Kazakhstan not to lose, but looking at the odds for the under I have to go with that bet. I would actually be surprised if this match sees more than one goal. Expect some boring, slow paced football tonight in Budapest – my tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Hungary – Kazakhstan 0-0.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.71 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.68
Event date: 7 June