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The 2016 Super Rugby final will be upon us Saturday morning (European time) and will feature two sides which have clearly been the best in the competition: Hurricanes (New Zealand) and Lions (South Africa). Super Rugby is the premier club competition in the Southern Hempsiphere (+Japan) and the unofficial top club competition in the World. with the 2016 final set to be hosts by Hurricanes in Wellington.
Hurricanes are the only New Zealand club who have not won the Super Rugby trophy. They lost last year’s final, but this season stars have aligned for them and they are heavy favorites to lift the trophy, especially as they play at home. The Canes are in excellent form, winning the last 7 matches and have not conceded a try in the two playoff matches against Sharks (41-0) and Chiefs (25-9). Their defense has been excellent and it will also be the foundation of their game in this final.
Lions were not expected to get this far and were a little shaky in the beginning of the season (including a 17-50 loss to the Hurricanes), but lately they have played some excellent attacking Rugby and won 7 out of their last 8 matches, with the only loss being in a match against Jaguars, where they did not field the best lineup. Much of the success can be attributed to coach Johan Ackermann, who took the Lions team from a difficult position a few years ago and guided the team to this amazing performance.
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Team news and lineups:
Nothing to shout about in terms of team news. Both sides get a couple of players back from injury and there are no new important absences. Superstar Julian Savea will play from the bench again for Hurricanes.
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Willis Halaholo, 11 Jason Woodward, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Michael Fatialofa, 4 Vaea Fifita, 3 Ben May, 2 Dane Coles (c)/Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Loni Uhila
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 11 Courtnal Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf De Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith
Lions are 8 point underdogs in this clash and is weaker than Hurricanes in terms of individual quality, but this is a team that showed a lot grit, determination and quality. They are by no means easy victims and I would not be shocked if they pull off the upset, especially as all the pressure will be on Hurricanes.
The best bet in this final seems to be under 50,5 points. Indeed, Lions’ games usually see more than 50 points, but there are special circumstances here. The most important one is the weather.
The forecast suggests rainy, wet and extremely windy weather, which will obviously make free flowing rugby more difficult to play. It will also making scoring penalties difficult and there are set to be a fair number of penalties in this final, with Lions expected to look for scrums to milk penalties from – as that`s the one department in which they are superior. Also, Hurricanes’ Barrett is not the best penalty kicker, so he could struggle in the wind.
There`s also the fact that Hurricanes are a top, top defensive side. They are the better team player for player and are at home, so they should impose the rhythm, making it difficult for the Lions to play their ultra fast, penetrating rugby. Lions will not be able to score tries in bunches like they do against inferior teams.
Finally, this is a final between two very good team and I reckon it’s set to be pretty evenly matched, so that naturally suggest a low scoring clash, which has been pretty often in Super Rugby finals. But, all in all, the weather is definitely the deciding factor for my bet.
The bookies set the points total pretty low for a Super Rugby match (where the rugby is so much better than in Europe), but they knew what they were doing. This is a final and only one of the last 6 Super Rugby finals saw over 50 points. With the circumstances today, another “low scoring” final is expected.
My tip is under 50,5 points to be scored, I`m buying 3 points for more security, but the under 47,5 can also be played with lower stakes. Prediction: Hurricanes – Lions 22 – 21.
Pick: under 50,5 points
Odds: 1.67 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.36
Event date: 6 August
