Chung – Copil

The first tennis match of the day in ATP Sofia, surface hard, will see talented South Korean Hyeon Chung take on Romania’s Marius Copil in the first round of the Bulgarian event.

19 year old Chung is definitely one of the youngsters with great potential on the ATP tour. The South Korean was excellent in 2015, reaching a Top 60 spot (currently 56th) and debuted pretty well in 2016, beating Groth and playing a close match with Cilic in Brisbane. He also put on a decent showing against Djokovic in the first round of the Australian Open, losing 3-6 2-6 4-6. It seems that more experience, consistency and a slightly better serve is all that Chung needs to become a top player in the game.

Big serving Marius Copil was never as highly rated as Chung as a youngster, but he did have tremendous potential and he was a personal bet of mine to reach the Top 20 – a bet that obviously makes me look sillu right now. At 25 years old, Copil failed to reach his potential and he’s currently outside the Top 200. However, once or twice per year Copil manages to play some impressive tennis, reaching quarterfinals of ATP events and / or beating / challenging Top 20 players. He will surely hope this is the case now in Sofia, as Marius defeated Lazaros and Sugita without losing a set, after not doing much else this year.

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This will be the first meeting between the two players. Copil is a big server who can also hit brilliant forehands on his day, but you have to feel that Chung’s solid return game might put pressure on the Romanian, giving Chung a match up advantage. The hard court surface in Sofia works well for both players.

The South Korean was initially rated at about 1.70 to win by the bookmakers, but the odds dropped big time and you can’t get higher than 1.55 on him right now. I think the odds went down a bit too much.

Listen, Chung is the favorite in this match and if you put a gun to my head, I might pick him to win. However, I will go with Copil for exactly 3 reasons. Firstly, Chung is inexperienced and can be inconsistent, at his age it is very dangerous to back him at low odds – while the odds on Copil are really tasty now. Secondly, Copil has the ability to explode once or twice per year, beating much better players than Chung and January / February has always been a fruitful period for him. Thirdly, the Romanian has played qualies, which is always an advantage.

If Copil feeds of the confidence gained in the qualies and serves well, he can definitely derail Chung and claim victory. My tip is Copil to win, but I am keeping the stakes in check. For what it’s worth, Bulgaria is also a neighboring country to Copil’s Romania, while Chung is not familiar with the surroundings and had to travel. Prediction: Hyeon Chung – Marius Copil 6-7 6-7.

Pick: Copil
Odds: 2.82 @ 1xBet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 2 February