Chung – Federer

Roger Federer will take on the surprising South Korean Hyeon Chung in the Australian Open semifinals, with Federer being rated as a 1.15 odds favorite to advance.

The 21 year old Chung is definitely having the tournament of his life, losing just two sets en route to his first ever Grand Slam semifinal. Chung had never even passed the 3rd round in a Slam before, so his performance is definitely highly impressive. The road so far for the South Korean included wins over Alex Zverev (3-2) and Novak Djokovic (3-0), before defeating Tennys Sandgren 6-4 7-6 6-3 in an unlikely semifinal on Tuesday night.

Federer has been excellent so far this year, winning his four matches in the Hopman Cup before cruising here in Melbourne over the past 10 days. While Federer had a rather easy draw, he also played excellent tennis, winning all his matches in straight sets and never getting into any kind of trouble. Roger defeated an in form Tomas Berdych 7-6 6-3 6-4 in the quarterfinals, a good win, as Berdych was firing on all cylinders.

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This will be the first H2H meeting between the two players. Chung is an able mover and baseline defender, so he will try to force Federer to hit an extra shot, hoping the Swiss will make mistakes. Chung is also an excellent counter puncher, but his big problem will be the fact that he has a rather weak serve.

This weak serve of Chung will be a massive weakness for him against Federer, as he might have problems holding his service games. Federer will be very hard to break, as always, so the fact that Chung won`t get many free points on his own serve will put him under massive pressure.

This pressure will obviously be accentuated by the opponent and by the occasion, so it remains to be seen if Chung will be strong enough mentally to stay composed in an Australian Open semifinal against the mighty Federer. Nevertheless, it has to be said that Chung so far showed great mental strength and cold blood, particularly against Djokovic.

Federer is in excellent form and in these conditions it`s very hard to believe Chung will be able to pose a real threat. Credit to the South Korean for his road so far, but it`s also true that he took advantage of the circumstances to reach this stage. Zverev and Djokovic were both far away from their best, while Sandgren in the quarterfinals was the easiest opponent one could ask for.

History tells us that when Federer meets an in form young gun in the advanced stages of a Grand Slam he almost always gives him a lesson, and I see no reason for this occasion to be different – especially considering that Roger is in great form.

My analysis suggests Federer should dominate this match, and that`s what I will bet on. My tip will be Federer to cover the -2,5 set handicap, I believe he should win this in straight sets. Prediction: Hyeon Chung – Roger Federer 6-7 4-6 2-6.

Pick: Federer -2,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.21 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.47
Event date: 26 January