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Ironically, the horrendous Eastern Conference will produce the most interesting matchup and rivalry this year between the Heat and the Pacers. Second meeting between the two this season here, after Indiana defeated the Heat 90-84 at home just 1 week ago.
The Pacers are currently holding the best record in the East, and the second best in the NBA, with 20 wins and 4 losses (9-3 on the road). One of those losses came in their last match 2 days ago, an upset at home against Detroit, and surely Indiana will not want a second defeat in a row, especially against Miami. Indiana is one of the favorites for the title this year and their probable meeting with the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals is one of the most anticipated points of the NBA Season. The rivalry between Indiana and Miami is well known, with Miami winning the last two Eastern Conference finals in very close battles.
Miami currently holds an 18-6 record (11-2 at home), pretty good numbers for the 2 time reigning champions, as they have always been slow starters and never really impressed in the regular season, aside for a great run in the second part of last season. The bad news for the Heat is that Lebron James is questionable for today with a sprained ankle. If the best player in the game will miss out, than these odds on Indiana will be huge value, as they should actually be reversed. However, I expect James (who is a game time decision) to play, but he might be limited in minutes and impact, which would be a devastating blow for the Heat.
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Clearly these two are among the best teams in the league right now, if not the best, so no point in talking about quality. The betting insight here revolves around matchup. Indiana, with their physical play and superior size, with Hibbert and West under the paint and with their rugged defense are a nightmare matchup for the small-ball Heat. Everybody knows that, it was obvious in the last two Eastern Conference finals. Indiana was extremely close to knock out the Heat last year and this season they are even stronger with two excellent bench additions in Scola and Watson, plus the emergence of Paul George into a true superstar, we are talking MVP – level. Indiana managed to beat Miamai 94-90 one week ago with George playing poorly, a very interesting and encouraging fact for the Pacers. George surely will not repeat that bad performance tonight, but on the other hand Miami plays at home this time. However, Indiana has proved multiple times that playing in Miami is not something they are afraid of.
Surely it will be another rugged, tense and close affair, with much emphasis being put on defense. Indiana is out for revenge after last years` conference finals, they just beat the Heat on weak ago and they are also on the back of a loss – Indiana does not lose two games in a row very often. I am secretely hoping James will not play, or be seriously restricted in minutes, which would almost automatically make this a winning bet, as he is of course crucial to Miami’s play and even more important against Indiana. But even with James at 100% (unlikely), I can`t see the Heat winning this in any other way than in a tight game which will go down to the last minutes. I expect Indiana to again make use of their match-up advantage against Miami and take this, but the +4 spread at great odds (value bet I`d say) is a very nice insurance for this type of encounter. The Pacers will again abuse the Heat with their size in their frontcourt, and if James isn`t at 100% to lead Miami`s backcourt, the champions will again be in big trouble against their rivals. Note that also Paul George is expected to be much better than in the meeting 1 week ago, so another advantage for Indiana.
My betting tip is Indiana to cover the +4 asian handicap and I can see something like Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat 97-95. The odds on the Pacers are dropping and the spread line is quickly moving towards 3,5 or even 3, so I would take this +4 line early. For +3,5 handicap I would decrease the stakes by 1 unit. I would normally wager 8 units on this, but considering Lebron’s issues (there`s a real possibility that he won’t play, and a very high posibility that he will be limited in minutes) this could turn into a huge value bet so I will personally choose maximum stakes for this one.
Pick: Indiana Pacers (+4 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.93 @ 10Bet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.30
Event date: 19 December
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 1 for 5 in NBA tips this season
