Pacers @ Heat

With the series tied at 1-1, the Heat and the Pacers will look to get an edge on Saturday in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. These two have made up for one of NBA’s most interesting rivalries lately, playing in the last two Eastern Conference Finals, with Heat winning each time in seven games. This time around Indiana worked their asses off to get that first seed and home court advantage and they managed to do it – however, the Heat are still the odds-on favorites to progress.

Two time reigning champions Miami did not look like finals contenders in the second part of the regular season, but they stepped it up in the playoffs. Despite meeting poor opposition in Charlotte and Brooklyn, the Heat were dominating and lost just 1 out of 9 games, so that surely has to account for something. They went on to play a horrible 1st game in Indianapolis in the finals but recovered to tie the series with a late rally in Game 3.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Indiana could make for one of the best stories in NBA history if they beat the Heat in this series. The visitors were all about getting that 1st seed and home court advantage this year, and played amazing basketball in the first part of the season. The last months however were nightmarish, with Indiana losing game after game and their star center Hibbert entering an unbelievable slump, going from a dominating presence to a guy barely averaging 2 points and 1 rebound. Indiana entered the playoffs in very shaky form and did not recover right away, being very close to getting knocked out by an 8th seeded Atlanta team (4-3). However, Indiana started to show glimpses of their old selves in the Washington series (4-2), Hibbert recovered as well, and they were very close of going up 2-0 against Miami.

The key in the Miami – Indiana series has always been the matchup. The Heat are the better team but they simply can`t cope with Indiana’s physical presence under the paint, toughness, and defensive effort. If Hibbert is at his best, Miami will never be a favorite to beat Indiana, and Hibbert is looking like he regained his old form right now after some horrific performances. After losing by miles in Game 1, Miami won Game 2 but barely – they won by 4 points even if they shot +11% from the 2 point line (51% vs 40%, amazing), had more steals, more blocks, more free throws made and just 3 rebounds less. Indiana had more 3 pointers but it`s not like it was a 3 point exhibition. Miami barely won the game despite leading in almost all categories and playing an almost perfect match.

Looking at the odds, Indiana clearly has immense value here. The Pacers are back in form and are dominating this matchup, they are confident because they have home court advantage and they know they can beat the Heat on the road. Lebron James said a couple of weeks ago that he is feeling very tired and his performance so far has not been up to standards, so I doubt he can bring home the win by himself. I rate this as a 50-50 game so I`m happy to go with Indiana at this kind of odds. The Pacers will no doubt dominate under the paint again and if they are not careless on the perimeter they should be able to win. The spread also looks great, this will most likely be close, but I`m going with the simple win based on pure value. Prediction: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat 93-90.

Pick: Indiana Pacers
Odds: 3.73 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 16.38
Event date: 25 May