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The Indiana Pacers will be confident of defeating one of the worst teams in the NBA, but the Lakers will try to take advantage of some dip in form the Pacers have shown recently.
Indiana (34-9, 13-8 away) is without a doubt a lock for the Eastern Conference finals and a serious NBA championship contender, as they have a great team and played top class basketball so far this season. However, the Pacers’ usually rock solid defense has crumbled in the last few games, as Indiana lost 2 out of the last 3 games, allowing an incredible 115 points per game, compared to their season average of 90 PPG.
The Lakers (16-29, 8-11 home) are having one of the worst seasons in recent history and things do not look likely to improve. With Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Steve Blake and a couple of other players (Henry, Farmar, etc.) still out, LA is basically fielding a D-League starting 5 right now and the results are, of course, horrible. The Lakers are in very bad form, losing 16 of their last 19 games, including the last 4. Home court advantage did not help them too much this season.
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The matchup here clearly favors Indiana. Arguably the best defensive team in the league, the Pacers should find it easy to neutralize Lakers` run & gun, 3 point shooting style of play. On the other hand, the Lakers can`t stop anybody from scoring, so Pacers should pass the 100 mark without too much problems The issue for the visitors however is that in the last three games they were incredibly poor on the defensive end, but I expect this to change tonight – the Pacers are too good to persist in mistakes. If Indiana will be able to defend in their usual manner, expect LA to have huge trouble finding a shot on pretty much every possession. Also, Paul George should have a solid game here for the Pacers after a poor performance in the last match so the tip here is pretty clear – Indiana to win – but at 1.20 odds, it`s mostly accumulator material or easy money ‘system’, something I rarely do.
On the back of a loss, with defensive issues and with Paul George shooting poorly last time out, the Pacers are simply due for a big game here, especially since the opponent is perfect to allow them to regain their rhythm. West and Hibbert should abuse soft Gasol, Kelly, Kaman and Sacre under the paint, so really the hosts will have very few options to create something, since they will surely be accurately guarded at the three point line. Lakers are just horrible right now and I can never see them holding off such a solid, organized team like Indiana. The 9.5 spread is without a doubt within the Pacers’ reach and I expect a blowout here. The odds on the Pacers are dropping and the line is going up, but you can still find even -9 or -8,5 at lower odds. Pick the Pacers to cover the spread in this one. Prediction: expect something like Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers 105 – 90.
Pick: Indiana Pacers (-9,5)
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 29 December
