Pacers @ Heat

This might well be the most tense encounter of the NBA regular season, as the Heat (53-25) and the Pacers (54-25) are involved in a dogfight for the first seed in the playoffs. These two are expected to battle it out in the Conference finals for the 3rd consecutive time and with the last two series going 7 games, the first seed (which comes with home court advantage) will be crucial. However, neither the Heat and the Pacers looked like title challengers in the last month or so, both teams being totally out of form. Miami lost 11 out of their 21 games while Indiana is playing even worse, losing 12 out of the last 20.

The Heat (31-8 at home), without Dwayne Wade, suffered defeat the last time out against the Memphis Grizzliez, falling apart in the 4th quarter despite a big night from Lebron James. Wade has missed the last 8 games and is questionable for today. Miami has even bigger problems, as Haslem, Andersen and Oden, all key in matching up against the Pacers frontcourt size, are also in doubt for tonight.

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Indiana (20-19 away) is on the back of a close 104-102 win at Milwaukee in a game in which Frank Vogel rested 5 important players attempting to revive a Pacers side that is simply out of sync lately. The experiment pretty much worked, and the Pacers will also be the fresher team coming into the Heat game. However, Indiana really needs to step up if they are to win this.

The two teams met on 26 March in Indiana in very similar circumstances, both sides being out of form. Indiana won an 84-83 thriller and now holds the tiebreaker over Miami in case the two will finish with identical records at the end of the regular season. As expected, the Heat and the Pacers raised their game in that last match despite their bad form, and this will probably happen again today.

Indiana has been a nightmare matchup for Miami in recent years due to their size and defense, and if Anderson, Haslem and Oden won`t play, Miami will be in big trouble against West and Hibbert. Wade missing will of course ba another huge blow. While the Heat are still the odds-on favorites playing at home, this should be a very close match like most of the meetings between these two – it will likely be decided in the last 2 minutes of play. My tip is Indiana to cover the 5,5 spread and if I had to bet on the under/over line as well, I would go with the under 184,5. Prediction: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat 89-90.

Pick: Indiana Pacers (+5,5)
Odds: 1.91 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 12 April