Ireland – New Zealand

Ireland and New Zealand will square off in a late Saturday rugby test to be played in Chicago, where New Zealand should feel more at home than Ireland due to the fact that they often play in the USA and have a fantastic fanbase there.

Ireland finished 3rd in the Six Nations at the start of 2016, only beating Scotland and Italy. However, the team is a bit better than those results showed and Ireland made a great account of themselves in the other 3 matches played this year. In the June tests, Ireland traveled to South Africa to play the Springboks 3 times and almost won the series, but in the end had to settle for 1 win and 2 losses. The Irish will use these late year tests to get ready for the 2017 Six Nations and this is one of the two games they will play against New Zealand.

After winning the Rugby Championship in arguably the most dominant fashion ever, New Zealand went on to play Australia for the Bledisloe Cup, at home and was surprisingly challenged by the Wallabies for 60 minutes or so. Australia actually looked to have a shot to win that game, but in the end New Zealand turned up the pressure, like always, and won by 27 points after showing some breathtaking rugby in the last 20 minutes. With that win the All Blacks broke the record of consecutive victories at International level, with 18 wins. New Zealand won its last 7 games (Rugby Championship + Bledisloe Cup) by an average margin of 29.3 points. This might well be the best team rugby ever saw.

Bet on Ireland – New Zealand and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet now!

Team news & lineups:

Ireland will miss key players like Henderson, O’Mahony, O’Brien and Bowe. New Zealand will welcome back Aaron Smith. They will miss three second row players, but the All Blacks have tons of options for every position on the pitch.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Jordi Murphy, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 George Moala, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Jerome Kaino, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Ireland has never beaten New Zealand in 28 tries, only getting a draw back in 1973. Ireland’s best shot to beat New Zealand was actually in the last meeting, 2013 in Dublin, when All Blacks won 24-22 in injury time. That match came just one year after New Zealand beat Ireland 60-0. However, recent Head 2 Head meetings don`t hold much relevance here, as the current New Zealand team is simply out of this world.

There`s a lot of talk that the handicap line is too high. That Ireland will be more motivated, or that New Zealand will be tired after a long season. That New Zealand was under pressure in the last match against Australia. Some of these are valid points, but it just seems like Groundhog day. Similar talk has been dished out in almost all of New Zealand’s recent matches and they still claimed record wins against the best teams in the World. Even when they were dominated by Australia in the last match they still won by 27.

When it`s all said and done, fact remains that New Zealand simply demolished their Rugby Championship opponents by record breaking margins and Ireland is weaker than all of those sides – even Argentina is better.

Ireland, as a mostly defensive team with very little line breaking ability will have big problem scoring points. I think I am generous in estimating one try and 3-4 penalties for them, their point total could end up lower than this. But their defense can not save them against the All Blacks, who will roll over you regardless of how good you think you defend – just ask South Africa, which was humiliated 41- 13 and 57 – 15 in the recent Rugby Championship.

Bottom line, Ireland will concede a lot of points, but they might not have the quality and style to narrow the gap by scoring themselves. It`s truly hard to see how Ireland could compete with the All Blacks, as they are worse in each and every aspect of the game.

Ireland`s absences will weight a lot in this match, as the Shamrocks miss a few irreplaceable players and that is always a big problem for every team except New Zealand.

One thing I like about New Zealand covering the handicap is that Beauden Barrett has finally come under scrutiny for his dreadful kicking. While the All Blacks No.10 has been in imperial form this season, he was missing incredibly easy kicks with a smile on his face in recent matches, costing New Zealand in the region of 10 points per game from accessible penalties and conversion. It didn`t really count as the All Blacks were scoring tries for fun, but the media, fans and even the coaching staff have started to get fed up with it. Right now Barrett needs to step up as he`s in danger of losing his place as a penalty taker, so I expect him to be more careful and not leave so many points on the table.

My tip here is New Zealand to cover the 22 point handicap. Ireland is a good team so expect them to keep it relatively close for most of the match, but New Zealand should have their usual 15-20 minutes of out of this world rugby, when all of a sudden they go nuts and put 25 points on their opponents. New Zealand`s bench should also have a big impact, like they always do.

Remember, Ireland does not have home court advantage in this encounter – actually it is quite the opposite, as New Zealand is used to playing in USA and will be well supported by the fan base they built here over the years. Prediction: Ireland – New Zealand 16 – 44.

Pick: New Zealand -22
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.37
Event date: 5 November