Ireland – New Zealand

Ireland will host New Zealand at the Aviva Stadium in what is arguably the most anticipated clash of the November tests in rugby union.

Ireland is having an excellent year, being crowned Six Nations Champions in February (winning all 5 games) and claiming a 2-1 series win in Australia over the Summer. Probably the second best team in World Rugby right now, Ireland also played well in this November test window, defeating Italy 54-7 in Chicago before beating Argentina 28-17 at home last week – although the Irish did struggle pretty seriously against the Pumas.

New Zealand won its third consecutive Rugby Championship title back in August / September, but it was a bit closer than in recent years. The All Blacks had problems against the Springboks, losing at home and barely surviving in South Africa. Nevertheless, New Zealand continues to be the dominant team in World Rugby and won both games they played this month: 69-31 in Japan and 16-15 in England – even if the England match was a very close one.

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Team news & lineups:

Unfortunately for Ireland, the team will miss a number of key players ahead of this titanic clash. O`Brien, Murray, Leavy and Henshow are all unavailable, and will be massive losses for Ireland – especially Murray. As for New Zealand, they will make just one change to the team which beat England, and it will be a positive one: Crotty coming in for Sonny Bill Williams.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Kieran Marmion, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe

New Zealand wasn`t that great last week in England and that was a game they could have (should have?) lost. Playing in Ireland might be an even bigger challenge, especially with the All Blacks potentially tired after a long season. In different circumstances, Ireland would look good value to cover the spread and maybe even win the game.

However, the injuries are simply devastating for the Irish and it`s hard to see them beating the mighty All Blacks without some of their best and most important players. Murray`s absence at No.9 is a huge blow, as nobody can replicate what he brings to the table.

One of New Zealand`s problem last week in England was actually losing territory because the excellent kicking of Ben Youngs, England`s No.90. Murray would have posed the same danger for the All Blacks, but with him out, Ireland is unlikely having the same success in gaining territory as England did.

New Zealand will also have an important advantage in the sense that England and Ireland play a very similar brand of rugby, so last week`s game has been great preparation – the All Blacks will be ready for what the Irish bring to the table.

Look for a solid performance from the All Blacks here. It has been a long year and tired legs are a possibility, but you still can`t see them having two bad games in a row after a rather disappointing showing last week (which still resulted in a win). Most of all, Ireland just has too much talent on the injury list, and history has shown us time and time again that you can`t afford to miss key players when you are taking on a team like New Zealand.

My tip here will be New Zealand to win. The point spread might be a bit risky given the fact that the visitors are on the back of a long season, but the straight win looks good and the odds are playable. Ireland is just too hurt to get over the edge in this one. Prediction: Ireland – New Zealand 19 – 25.

Pick: New Zealand
Odds: 1.45 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.05
Event date: 17 November