Ireland – Romania

Red hot Ireland will meet a tired Romanian team in the second round of Pool D, with the Brits looking to win by as many points as possible in order to gain a points difference advantage over group rivals France. First place in Pool D is crucial, as the second placed team will meet New Zealand in the next stage, so there is a lot of motivation for Ireland to best France’s 38-11 win over Romania and put as many points on the board as possible.

The Irish are truly on fire right now and it`s hard to say that they were ever more ready for a World Cup than they are at the moment. Many thought (including me) that Ireland will have some tough years after most members of their golden generation retired, particularly Ronan O’Gara and Brian O’Driscoll – but the transition has been fabulous, led by veteran captain Paul O’Connell and the team has gotten better and better recently.

Ireland are two time reigning Six Nations champions and have started the World Cup with a very solid 50-7 win over Canada. The versatility in the team is excellent with the Irish capable of pushing trough their forwards but also being arguably the best team in the Northern Hemisphere on the wings.

Romania played a very solid game against France and the 11-38 loss was actually a bit unlucky. Indeed, France didn`t play most of its regulars, but still fielded a top team. Romania dominated for long stretches and could have easily kept the game within 15-20 points. A horrible day for kicker Vlaicu, along with a yellow card, some refereeing errors and a couple of easy mistakes granted France a 27 point win. However, this will be a much tougher test for Romania. The Oaks traditionally start World Cups well, but fade away after the first match. Romania gave it their all in that match against France and with only 4 days of rest, it will be extremely difficult to take on Ireland. Even coach Lynn Howells stated that his “biggest fear” is playing a good game against France and then getting blown out by Ireland.

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Team news & lineups:

Ireland will make 12 changes to their opening game lineup, while Romania will make 9. The Romanians will field a very experienced but old team, with an average age of 30 years.

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Darren Cave, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Ian Madigan, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Jordi Murphy, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Nathan White, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.

Romania: 15 Catalin Fercu, 14 Adrian Apostol, 13 Paula Kinikinilau, 12 Csaba Gal, 11 Ionut Botezatu , 10 Michael Wiringi, 9 Valentin Calafeteanu, 8 Daniel Carpo, 7 Mihai Macovei (c), 6 Horatiu Pungea, 5 Ovidiu Tonita, 4 Valentin Poparlan, 3 Paulica Ion, 2 Andrei Radoi, 1 Andrei Ursache

The schedule hasn`t been kind for Romania and the Oaks will have a colossal task ahead of them today. The Romanians never could play two solid matches in a row in the World Cup, they always collapse physically after a match against a top nation and even in the end of each individual game. It has happened time and time again and it`s just due to the difference in quality, along with lack of matches against Tier 1 nations. This could be amplified by the very old team that will take the court today. Indeed, most of the guys who started against France will be on the bench today, but the ones who will play will be drained. I also don`t expect the fresh substitutes to have an impact, since Romania doesn`t have 25-30 players of the same quality to choose from. An “Ireland B” squad is totally different than a “Romania B squad” – not only between them, but in relation to each country`s best lineup. Ireland has unlimited options, Romania does not.

Additionally, the matchup really could not be worse for Romania. The Oaks are very strong on the forwards positions, but with Lazar and Turashvili on the bench, it`s doubtful they can stay on par with Ireland in this department. With tired key players and second string starters, Romania will not even have the advantage in the scrum, particularly in the second half. Most of all, Romania is arguably the worst team in the RWC on the wings (at least on par with the worst), while Ireland is brilliant. If France killed the Oaks on the wings, Ireland is expected to create immense damage in this department. The matchup advantage on the backs positions is huge for the Brits and they will surely run untroubled for wing tries all game long.

Can`t see anything else than a massive Ireland win and this could actually get ugly. Romania pretty much forfeited this game once the schedule was announced. The objective was to play a good game with France, rest key players and not be humiliated against Ireland and focus on the last two games with Italy and Canada. The Irish on the other hand want to get the points difference advantage over France, it`s not just a meaningless, “friendly victory” game for them. The handicap line set by the bookies is pretty high at 40.5 (and increasing), but it should be covered nonetheless. My tip will be Ireland to cover the -40,5 point handicap. I`m pretty sure if you gave the Oaks a 40 point loss right now, they would think really hard whether to take it or not. For “chicken punters”, Unibet has a 37,5 line at odds 1.70 at the moment, pretty good I`d say. But I`m going for better odds. Prediction: Ireland – Romania 58 – 6.

Pick: Ireland -40,5
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.50
Event date: 27 September