Betdistrict.com
The first weekend of the Six Nations will see Ireland host rivals Scotland on Sunday at the Aviva Stadium, after France and Wales got close wins on Saturday.
Ireland really looks like a team with a title shot this year. After the brilliant but underachieving generation of O’Gara, O’Connell or O’Driscoll pretty much ended (despite the latter still on the court and with huge impact), the Irish changed lines and are looking like a great mix of talent, youth and experience right now. It didn`t come easy, as Ireland was horrible in the last Six Nations (5th place), but things picked up for them. Ireland has a fantastic front-row, one of the best packs out there and, as usual, is one of the best in the world at the kicking game and penalties. The hosts are in great form at the moment, playing very good rugby in the November test matches. They lost 15-32 to Australia but destroyed Samoa 40-9 and put on a world class performance in the last match they played, a 22-24 loss to New Zealand. A repeat of the New Zealand
Scotland, a perennial bottom two finisher in the Six Nations, got a break last year with a fantastic 3rd place finish. However, they had only 1 point above Ireland and the last placed France, and their success was mainly due to other teams underachieving. They beat Ireland at home 12-8 with a massive amount of luck so all in all, aside for the standings, the Scots weren`t that impressive. Scotland was actually pretty good in the last game they played (15-21 vs Australia) but in the previous test they were blown off the court by a South African team who didn`t even try too hard (0-28), a game I watched and in which I could see a lot of weaknesses for the hosts.
 |
Excellent in-play markets and top-class live streaming coverage. Bet at Unibet and claim your bonus now ! |
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Martin Moore, 19 Dan Tuohy, 20 Tommy O’Donnell, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Paddy Jackson, 23 Fergus McFadden
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Alex Dunbar, 12 Duncan Taylor, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Dave Denton, 7 Kelly Brown (c), 6 Ryan Wilson, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Tim Swinson, 3 Moray Low, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant
Replacements: 16 Pat MacArthur, 17 Al Dickinson, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Richie Gray, 20 Johnnie Beattie, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Matt Scott, 23 Max Evans
The big problem for Scotland will be the Irish pack. Playing away will also be a problem, but the main key is that the visitors do not have a strong front row, and could face demolition against a heavier and much better Irish pack. Scotland has won just once in their last 17 away games in the Six Nations. The wing battle seems pretty even as Scotland can surely compete there, but the hosts also have a better kicking game and make less handling mistakes.
Ireland really looks much better than Scotland right now and at home I reckon they will easily complete the job, covering the handicap set by the bookies in the process. Expect the hosts to keep a massive amount of possession and territory, pressing and mostly scoring rugged tries trough their forwards. If they can put on 75% of the performance they had against New Zealand, they should blow Scotland off the court. The last meeting between the two at Aviva Stadium finished 32-14 for Ireland just two years ago. My tip is Ireland to cover the 11,5 spread as I simplu can`t see any conceivable way in which the Scots could gain any kind of matchup advantage over their rivals, especially on the road. The hosts are just better all-around with a couple of huge advantages that should make the difference: the crucial pack, the forwards, the kicking game, the execution, the passing play, the turnover ratio and also better form. Prediction: Ireland – Scotland 30-13. The line is slowly going up but right now Ladbrokes is offering a brilliant evens for the 11,5 handicap bet. Maximum stakes.
Pick: Ireland (-11,5)
Odds: 2.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 2 February
