Ireland – Scotland

Ireland and Scotland square off in the last matchday of the 2016 Six Nations, with each team facing the possibility of finishing anywhere between the 2nd and the 5th place. However, the winner will most likely settle for the 3rd place, as Wales will surely beat Italy.

Overall, Ireland has been disappointing in this tournament. Retirements, injuries and a nightmare schedule in the first 3 rounds saw Ireland get a lucky draw with Wales, before losing in France and in England. Offense was a big problem early in the tournament, with Ireland scoring just 35 points in the first 3 matches. However, the Shamrocks finally got going last week, putting no less than 9 tries past Italy in a 58-15 destruction. Sure, Italy was dirt poor, but Ireland was impressive. Playing without pressure definitely suited them.

There was never a debate about the fact that Scotland raised their game under Vern Cotter, but a few people, myself included, did not believe they truly took it to another level. Results in the first three rounds were a bit misleading – close losses to Wales and England that were not as close as the score suggests and a 16 point victory against Italy in a match that wasn`t quite decided until the last few minutes. However, Scotland proved the few doubters wrong with a solid 29-18 victory against France last week. It was the same story as in the previous three matches – great first half, then starting the second half poorly, escaping big opponent pressure and raising the level in the last 10 minutes.

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Team news & lineups:

Ireland continues to miss key players in key positions, like Rob Kearney and Sean O’Brien. Scotland has also been hit by injuries ahead of this clash, as they will miss No.10 Russell and No.5 Jonny Gray.

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Tommy O’Donnell, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Duncan Taylor, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 John Hardie, 6 John Barclay, 5 Tim Swinson, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson

Since 2010, Ireland won 5 Head 2 Head meetings, while Scotland won 3. Last year the pair met twice – a 28-22 Irish win in Dublin, a World Cup preparation test, and a sublime 40-10 victory by the Irish in Edinburgh in the Six Nations. Such a result will be almost impossible to repeat, given Scotland’s improvement and Ireland’s decline.

Scotland will be hurt by the absences of Gray and Russell, but Ireland misses key players as well. The Scots also have to deal with playing a second match in 6 days, but Ireland had just one extra day of rest, so it shouldn`t make a big difference.

The hosts benefit from having home court advantage and are a slightly more talented side overall, but Scotland has two massive advantages. Their scrum has been fantastic so far, dominating traditional world class scrums (Italy, France) in the last two matches. They also have Greig Laidlaw, who is posting some amazing percentages this year from the penalty spots, while his counterpart Sexton is not in the best form and not 100% fit. If these matchups go as planned, Scotland is really in with a chance to provoke an upset.

I do believe Ireland will win this match, but the 7.5 point handicap is definitely too high. It represents more than a converted try, so the fact that we get 7.5 instead of 6.5 is huge. Wales and England could not cover this spread against Scotland and those two are clearly better teams than Ireland right now – while Scotland gained confidence and continued to improve since those matches.

Expect a close battle, going back and forth. There could also be a high number of points scored considering the fact that there`s not huge pressure to get a result for either side and Scotland is playing the most entertaining rugby in the Northern Hemisphere. However, I like the handicap on Scotland much more than the over, as the line is just too good to pass up.

My tip is Scotland to cover the 7,5 point handicap. Odds are dropping. Prediction: Ireland – Scotland 28 – 26.

Pick: Scotland +7,5
Odds: 1.90 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 19 March