Ireland – Wales

Ireland and Wales will square off at the Aviva Stadium in Round 3 of the Six Nations, and both teams will know that a win would keep them in contention to win the 2018 title.

Ireland is on the back of a comfortable 37 point home win against Italy, after previously escaping with a dramatic win in France – winning 15-13 thanks to a last second Sexton drop goal. The Irish didn`t play very well in France and the match against Italy doesn`t held much relevance, but overall they do seem in very good form, especially if we think about their progress and performances over the last few years. Even that close win in France was a testament to how confident and composed the team is, and how it can deliver in big moments.

The Welsh weren`t very highly rated coming into this tournament, as they seemed to have stagnated over the past couple of years, and didn`t play well at all in the Autumn Internationals. However, Wales has shown a new look so far in the first two rounds, claiming a marvelous 34-7 win over Scotland in the opener, and backing that up with an excellent showing in England – even though they eventually lost that game 6-12.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams get a few guys back from injury, but Wales will welcome the returns more, as the world class trio of Halfpenny, Biggar and Williams will add a boatload of quality to the Welsh ranks. Ireland will actually end up weaker despite the comebacks, as they have lost Henshaw and Furlong due to injury, both of them crucial pieces.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Chris Farrell, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Dan Leavy, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Devin Toner, 4 James Ryan, 3 Andrew Porter, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Liam Williams, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Steff Evans, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Josh Navidi, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Cory Hill, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans

Ireland hasn`t lost at home in the Six Nations since 2013, and the feeling is home court advantage should decide the outcome here between two quality sides. However, the odds on Ireland aren`t very high, and the match could well be close.

Wales showed some amazing defensive intensity in the first two games. Allowing a combined total of just 19 points against Scotland and England is really a magnificent achievement, and the Welsh will rely on their defense to help them challenge for a win here.

Ireland can sometimes lack ideas up front, as seen in their first round match against France (when they failed to score). An airtight Welsh defense could create big problems for the hosts, especially as they now miss a killer finisher like Henshaw.

On the other hand pretty much the same can be said the other way around, as Ireland`s defense has been excellent so far in this tournament, while the Welsh themselves can struggle to score at time. They put only 6 points on the board against England two weeks ago, with no tries.

This should be a highly physical clash with penalties being the main form of scoring, and here the weather comes into play. Strong winds are expected at game time, which could make kicking at goal pretty difficult. Both teams have world class kickers, but it`s reasonable to expect a few points being left on the table if the windy conditions occur as predicted.

The last three meetings between Wales and Ireland saw totals of 26, 32 and 31 points being scored and something similar could be on the cards this time around between these two fine teams, especially with the wind factor.

My tip is under 39,5 points to be scored, and I trust my analysis enough to invest a solid 8 units stake on the bet. Prediction: Ireland – Wales 19 – 14.

Pick: under 39,5
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 24 February