Italy – Azerbaijan

Italy and Azerbaijan meet in one of the most one sided matches counting for the Euro 2016 qualifiers today, but the visitors are sure to leave everything they have on the pitch in the hope of a historic result.

After the disappointment at the World Cup, Italy is looking pretty good right now under Antonio Conte. The former Juventus man knows how to build a squad and pump it up with confidence and that was seen in the 2-0 friendly win over the Netherlands but most notably in the 2-0 win in Norway – a game which Italy controlled on both ends of the pitch and could have won it even more comfortably if not for some huge missed chances. The Squadra Azzura is playing great football, moving the ball well, they have speed and incisiveness, things they lacked lately under Prandelli.

Azerbaijan is an emerging nation in football, no doubt about that, but it seems the progress is valid only for domestic clubs. The National team is still struggling big time, having only defeated Philippines in the last 8 matches despite generally meeting modest opposition. Azerbaijan lost 2-1 against an out of form Bulgaria side in the first round, a disappointing result considering it came at home, where the Azeris are much stronger. We`re talking about a side that has not won on the road since 2011!

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Team news & lineups

Italy has a number of missing players – Motta, Montolivo, Rossi, Barzagli, Paletta and Osvaldo won`t play, Balotelli was left out and Veratti is questionable. Azerbaijan has a clean bill of health ahead of this game.

Italy: Buffon – Ranocchia, Bonucci, Chiellini – Darmian, Marchisio, Pirlo, Florenzi, De Sciglio – Immobile, Zaza

Azerbaijan: Agayev – Sukurov, Sadiqov, Huseynov, Budak – Nazarov, Qarayev, Abisov, Cavadov – Aliyev, Dadasov

The hosts looked very, very good in the previous match under Antonio Conte and I expect nothing less than another spirited performance in their first home game in these Euro 2016 qualies. They have some squad problems, but the projected lineup shows they have depth as well. Azerbaijan is not a side that can make an impact on the road so I can`t see them even staying within a 2 goal handicap. Italy is very offensive minded and dynamic with Conte, they can score goals and their defense looks great as well. My tip is Italy to win and cover a 2,5 goal handicap – if they replicate the performance against Norway the bet is almost won. Odds dropping fast on this one. Prediction: Italy – Azerbaijan 3-0.

Pick: Italy (-2,5)
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.55
Event date: 10 October