Italy – Costa Rica

Italy hopes to confirm the win against England with another 3 points over the surprise package of Costa Rica, winners 3-1 vs. Uruguay in the first match.

Squadra Azzura looked in a very dangerous spot before the World Cup: beat just Fluminense in 8 matches and got some atrocious results in friendlies versus teams like Luxembourg or Armenia. But the World Cup is the World Cup, and Italy played one of the greatest matches I saw for them in years: winning 2-1 against an England team that actually played great, many saying it was the best match of the World Cup. Italy’s defense looked top notch again, and we know that lately their offense works very good also. Team news for Italy say that Buffon and De Ceglie are doubtful.

Italy lineup: Sirigu – Chiellini, Barzagli, Paletta, Darmian – De Rossi, Verratti, Pirlo, Marchisio, Candreva-  Balotelli.

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Costa Rica pulled off probably the biggest surprise of the tournament with the 3-1 win vs. Uruguay – also coming from behind, an impressive achievement. Costa Rica played some great football on counters and the attacking duo of Ruiz and Campbell is clearly quality, can trouble any team. But we also must take into account that Uruguay played a very poor match, had no rhythm and overall we don’t know if Costa Rica could have got a result against a better team, even if they were on their best day. The Central Americans lack quality on the defensive end and for sure a sharper team than Uruguay will punish them. Team news for Costa Rica are great, no problems for them.

Italy lineup: Navas – Gonzalez, Umana, Duarte, Gamboa – Bolanos, Diaz, Tejeda, Borges – Ruiz – Campbell.

Even if Italy defeated England, they know that they can’t afford to lose points today. The Group is very tough and Italy could lose the first place or even the qualification if they do not defeat Costa Rica. We have to give respect to the Central Americans after their game vs. Uruguay, but Italy is in much better shape than Uruguay. Also after Costa Rica’s win, we get much better odds than normal on Italy. If Squadra Azzuro pules off another performance like vs. England, it would be a miracle for Costa Rica to get a point. I think Costa Rica can’t put pressure on the Italian defense and if Italy goes ahead by 1, they will probably score a second goal also when Costa Rica opens up a bit; Italy is great when they have spaces and have Pirlo to get trough balls to the strikers. My tip is Italy to win and cover the -1 asian handicap. Money back seems like a worst case scenario for me. Correct score prediction: Italy – Costa Rica 3-0.

Pick: Italy (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.03 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10.3
Event date: 20 June