Italy – France

Italy and France will square off in the second to last round of the 2017 Six Nations, in Rome, with France rated as an 18,5 point spread favorite by the bookies.

After getting spanked by Wales and Ireland, Italy was expected to lose heavily last round in England. It was definitely not the case, as Italy actually had a shot to win the game, until collapsing in the last 15 minutes and losing by 21. The reason for the amazing performance was Conor O’Shea’s brilliance, with the Italian coach finding a loophole in the rules of rugby and exploiting it in a way that eliminated the offside rule. England was confused and could not figure out what to do, their manager even stating that it “was not a rugby game”. The Azzuri deserve credit for last round’s showing, but the special circumstances mean it was not a proof of improvement – but rather a moment of inspiration for the manager.

France continues to turn heads as their level of rugby is improving under Guy Noves, but despite the obvious progress, France still has a long way to go. The French are looking great at times and they are keeping games close against top opposition, but they are not winning any of them. So far in this tournament France lost to England by 3 and to Ireland by 10. They managed to beat Scotland by 6, but they were a bit lucky in that one. Defense looks fantastic, but France suffers big time in the try scoring department, getting over the line only twice in 3 games.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy will make 3 changes to the team that challenged England last round. Injuries to Ghiraldini and Allan will hurt the Azzuri. France will make 5 changes to the team that lost in Ireland. The big news are the return of Vakatawa and the absence of Spedding.

Italy: 15 Edoardo Padovani, 14 Angelo Esposito, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Luke McLean, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Carla Canna, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Abraham Steyn, 5 Dries van Schalkwyk, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Baptiste Serin, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kévin Gourdon, 6 Fabien Sanconnie, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Julien Le Devedec, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Cyril Baille

After being whipped and humiliated by everybody in the last year or so, Italy shocked the world by going toe to toe with England at Twickenham in the last round. The Azzuri eventually lost by 21 points, but they led at half time and only trailed by 2 points with 12 minutes to go.

Nevertheless, Italy can not be expected to repeat that performance, even if they are back at home. Firstly, they usually have one good game per year and it seems that was it for 2017. Secondly, the main (arguably only) reason for which Italy stayed close was the fact that they found a loophole in the rules of the game. They avoided forming rucks, which meant there was no offside rule and that totally baffled England, transforming the game into a circus. But this tactic can only work once. France saw it and surely prepared for it, so I don`t even expect Italy to employ it again.

Italy remains dirt poor at this level despite the trick they played on England two weeks ago and I can see them losing this handily. However, France is not that good either and looking at their offense, it`s hard to see them winning by more than 20-25 points at best.

France has been inept at scoring tries in this tournament, with only 2 to their name. They barely average 15.6 points scored per game. Of course, it will be easier to score against Italy, but you can`t be expected to go from 15 points per game to 50 – as poor as Italy are, they are not some Tier 3 amateurs and they are also much stronger in Rome. Getting the 4 try bonus point would be a real success for France.

On the other hand, looking at France’s brilliant defense and at the pathetic scoring of Italy (10.6 points scored per game), it is expected that France will not give the Italians too many opportunities. The French were really impressive with their ability to hold off teams like Ireland, Scotland or England from scoring. Those powerhouses struggled immensely to break the French lines, so if France brings the same intensity, it`s difficult to see how Italy could even score a try.

I can see a low scoring game here, with both teams playing a physical brand of rugby. There should be some interesting scrum battles, with resets and time eaten off the clock. Both sides have been horrible at scoring tries or points in this Six Nations and while they might score slightly more than their average when they meet eachother (particularly France), it`s hard to see them surpassing 48.5 points together.

Neither of the last 6 H2H meetings have gone over the current 48,5 points total line. The highest scoring of those 6 games was last year’s meeting in Paris, when France won 23-21. That was the traditional one good game Italy has per tournament.

I also believe France’s quest for a bonus point might actually help the bet on under. The French are scoring most of their points through the excellent boot of Lopez, but they will leave many 3 pointers on the table, trying to go for tries instead. That could hurt their point total, because they don`t have the try scoring ability of the other teams in the Six Nations. It will also eat time off the clock.

My tip is under 48,5 points to be scored. As for the handicap line, I would have gone with France if it was a little lower. But 18 points on the road is pretty high for a French team that is still not a proven powerhouse. Prediction: Italy – France 9 – 27.

Pick: under 48,5 points
Odds: 1.94 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.46
Event date: 11 March