Italy – Ireland

Italy and Ireland will square off in the second round of the 2017 Six Nations, after both teams lost their opener last week.

Italy entered this year’s Six Nations without many expectations, as they had an atrocious 2016, barring a lucky shock win against South Africa in November. The match last week against Wales came to confirm Italy futility, as they lost by 26 despite trying their best and playing close to their top potential for most of the match.

Ireland is in a must win situation after losing a tight first round match in Scotland. It was a good game between two of Europe’s finest sides and you can`t really hold that loss against Ireland, as they almost pulled off a road win against an excellent Scottish team. Ireland played well, confirming the recent improvement and the great form they showed in the second part of 2016. Nevertheless, Ireland must now win the remaining 4 matches if they want to win the title and a bonus point victory in Italy would be a good start.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy will make 4 changes to the lineup that lost against Wales. Parisse was doubtful for this game, but luckily for Italy their best player has been declared fit to play. However, if he will be at his best and fit for 90 minutes is questionable. Ireland made only 2 changes compared to last week`s starting XV. Their No.10 Sexton continues to miss out and Jackson will again deputize instead of him.

Italy: 15 Edoardo Padovani, 14 Angelo Esposito, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Luke Mclean, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Maxime Mbanda, 5 Andries van Schalkwyk, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy

Last season Ireland beat Italy by 43 points (!!) in the Six Nations in an absolute destruction. Italy looked completely lost in that game and even if this time they will play at home, they will also face an Ireland team which got (much) better since then.

Ireland was truly excellent at the end of last year and 2016 marked the first time in 14 years when a Northern Hemisphere side beat all Southern Hemisphere giants in a single calendar year – an amazing feat achieved by the Irish. The loss in Scotland will have hurt Ireland, no doubt, but they have the quality, the morale and the weapons to bounce back against Italy in the most accessible game of the tournament for them. Ireland actually did not play bad at all in Scotland but a very poor start ended up costing them the win.

Italy are not looking good at all and the way it looks right now, they will probably get destroyed by everybody. Usually they do have one good game per tournament, generally at home, but it`s doubtful if they will do that again in 2017, as they just don`t seem to have the quality. More importantly, it`s unlikely for it to happen against a hurt animal like Ireland, which will be extra motivated and focused to get their campaign back on track.

Expect Ireland to try and push the ball out wide, where they should be able to destroy Italy and pile up on the tries. The hosts will try to dominate in the scrum and rely on Parisse at the breakdown, but Ireland can match them in both departments. As it happened against Wales, Italy will likely fade away in the last half hour or so. When their forwards tire, there will not be anything left to keep them in the game.

After losing the first game Ireland really needs a bonus point win here, so scoring 4 or more tries is almost a must. The new bonus point system should help a bet on Ireland to cover the spread here, they will not settle for penalties and will not turn off the gas until they have 4 tries to their name.

Wales beat Italy by 26 points despite trailing 3-7 at half time and not playing great, while Italy had a terrific first half. Ireland is a better team than Wales and will be on a mission to win with a bonus point (which Wales failed to do), so I expect the Irish to hand this poor Italy side a big beating.

The point spread is set pretty high, but even so I expect Ireland to cover it. My tip is Ireland to win by more than 22 points and cover the handicap. Prediction: Italy – Ireland 13 – 42.

Pick: Ireland -22,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Bwin
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 11 February