Italy – Romania

Italy and Romania will end their Rugby World Cup campaign with a meeting that will decide the third place in Pool D. Ireland and France are qualified, while Canada ended up last. The clash has great implications for European Rugby, as a Romania win will go a long way into determining a possible restructuring of the Six Nations – possibly with a relegation / promotion playout.

Italian Rugby is not in the best moment right now, they have been the worst team in Six Nations by far this year, despite somehow finishing against Scotland. Club rugby in the country is in a massive crisis and most of Italy`s best players have aged or have retired. The Azzuri also entered the World Cup without many important players, who were injured.

Italy`s first two games weren`t too impressive. They lost by 22 points against France and almost lost to Canada, coming back for a difficult 23-18 win. Italy played a much better defensive match against Ireland, staying within 7 points in a remarkable narrow loss (9-16). However, the improvement was closely tied to the fact that key No.8 Sergio Parisse played his first match of the RWC, as he was instrumental to Italy’s performance – but he will not play today, so the Azzuri might find themselves reverting to the uninspired game they played in the first matches.

Romania played 50 horrible minutes against Canada on Tuesday, falling behind 0-15 but somehow the Oaks pulled off the biggest comeback in RWC history to win 17-15 – with a 78th minute Vlaicu penalty settling the result. The Romanian pack and Canada tiring where the key motives for the turnaround. The win came to confirm a good tournament played by Romania so far, as they were unlucky to lose by 27 in the opener against France and “only” lost by 34 against Ireland despite being very tired and shuffling the squad. The objective for the Oaks coming into the tournament was to get two wins. However, the realistic goal was to beat Canada, so with that being done, Romania can play this one without pressure.

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Team news & lineups:

Each team has 2 new injuries / suspensions to key players. Italy misses captain and best player Parisse, along with Martin Castrogiovanni, while Romania misses captain Macovei and Scrum half Surugiu.

Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Tommaso Benvenuti, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Alessandro Zanni, 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Josh Furno, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys (captain), 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Andrea Manici, 1 Matias Aguero.

Romania: 15 Catalin Fercu, 14 Madalin Lemnaru, 13 Paula Kinikinilau, 12 Florin Vlaicu, 11 Ionut Botezatu, 10 Michael Wiringi, 9 Valentin Calafeteanu, 8 Daniel Carpo, 7 Viorel Lucaci, 6 Valentin Ursache (c), 5 Johannes van Heerden, 4 Valentin Poparlan, 3 Paulica Ion, 2 Otar Turashvili, 1 Mihaita Lazar.

Italy covered a 14 point handicap only twice in 8 H2H meetings with Romania. In the previous meeting, Italy won 24-18 in the 2007 World Cup, with Romania almost able to defeat an Italy team that was much stronger than the current one.

Romania’s biggest problem will be that this match comes just 5 days after the one against Canada – which will be a big physical test for a Tier 2 side, especially with Italy fresh and rested. Losing Macovei and Surugiu will also be a blow, but probably not as important as Parisse’s injury is to Italy.

The Oaks will likely dominate Italy’s scrum early on and will pose a threat from the lineuts – where they have been surprisingly effective so far, while Italy was in shambles in this segment. These are valid threats and match-up advantages for Romania. Of course, the Azzuri have more skill and will be dangerous on the wings, but it will probably not be enough to cover a big spread. With Romania expected to score at least a try from a scrum or a lineut running maul, along with a few penalties, Italy should probably score over 30 points today to beat the handicap – which is highly unlikely, as they barely scored 42 points in three matches and only put 23 past Canada.

If Romania does not collapse physically in the last half hour, they should be able to cover this pretty large handicap – and with this being the last match, I believe they will not leave any energy unconsumed and will fight with the same intensity until the end. Italy is not in a good spot and they are just not the same team without Sergio Parisse. It should also be a low scoring clash, which makes covering a 14 point spread even more difficult. My tip is Romania to cover the +14 point handicap. Prediction: Italy – Romania 23-17.

Pick: Romania +14
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 11 October