Italy – Scotland

Italy and Scotland will square off in Rome in what could be the deciding game for the Six Nations wooden spoon. Both sides are pointless after the first two rounds, but their level of play has been completely different.

Italy is continuing to develop as a Rugby nation and has come a long way since being introducted in this tournament. They started challenging and even beating the top sides, they avoided the wooden spoon in the last two Six Nations Championships and they are confident of repeating the performance this year. Italy was disappointing in the test matches played in the second half of 2013, but showed a totally different face in this tournament. The hosts lost a close match (15-23) in Wales to open the Six Nations campaign and they were also pretty good in the 30-10 loss on the road to a very strong France side. As always, the scrum has been Italy main`s asset, the italians have one of the best front rows in the world right now. On the other hand, the hosts are still rather slow on the wings and their defense has lost a step compared to the 2013 tournament.

Scotland is very dangerous to hitting rock bottom at the moment. The visitors have been simply horrific in their opening two matches, losing 28-6 in Ireland and 0-20 at home to England, scoring zero tries and just 6 points! Questions have been rightfully asked about them keeping the Six Nations spot instead of Georgia or even Romania, who would arguably deserve a chance against the Scots in a playoff. Their scrum is the worst in the competition by miles, they are making a ton of unforced errors, the kicking game is poor and their offensive potential is close to zero.

Scotland is better than Italy on the wings, but that`s pretty much their only edge here. The italian scrum is so much stronger and you should expect the hosts to demolish the Scotland front row time and time again. The visitors will miss key players like Visser and Maitland today.

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Scotland defeated Italy two times last season, 30-10 at Murrayfield and 30-29 in Pretoria. However, the first game was played at home and Scotland was in its best form in ages. The second game was a test this summer on neutral venue which Italy deserved to win. Both sides had historic campaigns in the Six Nations last year, finishing 3rd (Scotland) and 4th (Italy). Still, those were mostly favourable circumstances as Ireland and France were rebuilding. Last time the two met in Italy was in 2011, when the home team won 13-6 thanks to a horrible performance by Scotland.

Lineups

Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Angelo Esposito, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Leonardo Sarto, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse, 7 Robert Barbieri, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Joshua Furno, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Alberto De Marchi.

Replacements: 16 Davide Giazzon, 17 Matias Aguero, 18 Lorenzo Cittadini, 19 Marco Bortolami, 20 Paul Derbyshire, 21 Tobias Botes, 22 Luciano Orquera, 23 Tommaso Iannone.

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Alex Dunbar, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 Chris Fusaro, 6 Ryan Wilson, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Moray Low, 2 Scott Lawson, 1 Ryan Grant

Replacements: 16 Ross Ford, 17 Al Dickinson, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Dave Denton, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Duncan Taylor, 23 Max Evans

I can see only one winner in this game and that`s Italy. My belief is that they will also cover the handicap set by the bookies. The hosts are hands down the better team at the moment, they are in much better form and have a huge advantage in the scrum, which always makes a difference. Rarely a team so dominated in the scrum (which is what we should expect from Scotland) has been able to escape with a win. Not lastly, Italy is notoriously a strong home team, with even the best nations in the world struggling to get a win in Rome, while Scotland is poor on the road. Also considering Scotland`s important absences, my tip is Italy to win with a 3,5 point handicap and I expect them to cover rather comfortably. I would have liked better odds for this bet, but the bookies did their homework. However, the price is still good, but the odds are dropping so I`d take this one early. Prediction: Italy – Scotland 18-11.

Pick: Italy (-3,5)
Odds: 1.93 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.30
Event date: 22 February