Betdistrict.com
In an unbelievable turn of events, Costa Rica has qualified from group D after just 2 matches, England is out, while Italy and Uruguay (both with 3 points) will play a decider for a place in the knockout stage. Uruguay needs the win, Italy can do with a draw – massive game here at Arena das Dunas in Natal.
Italy started the tournament so well with a 2-1 win over England in a very entertaining match, a surprising result considering the fact that Squadra Azzura was in dreadful form prior to the tournament. However, the Italians did not back up that win and were disappointing in a 0-1 loss to Costa Rica next round. The Central Americans are a good side, that became a clear fact, but still Italy could have done better. In such an important game against Uruguay, and with their form being shaky, I expect the Italians to count on their traditional asset: their defense.
Uruguay recovered after the 1-3 loss against Costa Rica to record a massive 2-1 win over England, but it has to be said, the result was extremely lucky. England dominated the game from start to finish, could have scored at least 2 or 3 goals, but Uruguay was fortunate to escape and simply had a World Class player in Luis Suarez, who took the few chances that presented to his team. I was not impressed by Uruguay: a slow, lackluster performance against Costa Rica followed by a match in which they defended the whole time, wasted minuted and got lucky. They are still a side to be reckoned with, but they need to improve if they are to make any noise in this World Cup.
 |
Excellent in-play markets and top-class live streaming coverage. Bet at Unibet and claim your bonus now ! |
Team news & lineups
Italy and Uruguay are both at full strength ahead of this key encounter.
Italy: Buffon – Abate, Barzagli, Chiellini, Darmian – De Rossi, Pirlo, Verratti, Marchisio, Candreva – Balotelli.
Uruguay: Muslera – A Pereira, Gimenez, Godin, Caceres – M Pereira, Gargano, Rodriguez, Arevalo – Suárez, Cavani.
I think Italy is the slight favorite, despite the odds suggesting a dead even game. However, neither side has been too impressive and since Italy only needs a draw, I’m not even thinking at backing them – even with asian handicap. I reckon the best pick here is the under 2,5 goals. Uruguay has shown little to no offensive power so far this tournament except for the brilliance of Luis Suarez, while Italy, albeit not the same defensive team like in the past, can still park the bus, close down spaces and frustrate opponents (as seen in the second half against England). The weather conditions are also an important argument for the under, there have been massive amounts of rain in Natal, the pitch won’t be in perfect condition and humidity will make it harder for players to run around. Not lastly, with a Round 16 spot at stake, clearly nobody will take too many risks. My tip is under 2,5 goals and the odds are dropping on this bet. Prediction: Italy – Uruguay 0-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.24
Event date: 24 June
