Italy – Wales

Italy and Wales will square off in Rome in the last match of the 2017 Six Nations first round.

The Italians were dirt poor in last year’s Six Nations, losing all games by an average margin of 29 points. They did not get better in the June tests, losing to Argentina and barely edging Tier 2 Nations Canada and USA by a few points. November started in the same manner, with Italy losing by 58 points at home to an All Blacks team that rested many of its top guys. Facing criticism and questions about their Six Nations place, Italy managed to turn it around and claim its biggest ever victory, a 20-18 success against South Africa. Even if Italy got very lucky and South Africa was a disaster at the end of last year, it was still a massive win. However, Italy then lost at home to Tonga in the last match of the year, reverting back to their usual poor selves.

Wales finished second last year behind England and was pretty close to the level of their rivals, but things went a bit downhill for them. They got 4 spankings in a row from New Zealand (3 times) and Australia, with the level of rugby often being poor. Under criticism, Wales did manage to end the year on a high with 3 wins in succession against Argentina, Japan and South Africa. Still, expectations are not high for the Welsh, particularly as coach Gatland has been replaced with his assistant Howley for this tournament.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will make 5 changes to the lineups that beat South Africa late last year (Italy by 2, Wales by 14). There is no particular handicap in terms of selection for either team.

Italy: 15 Edoardo Padovani, 14 Giulio Bisegni, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Luke McLean, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse(c), 7 Mata Maxime Mbanda, 6 Abraham Steyn, 5 George Biagi, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Ornel Gega, 1 Andrea Lovotti

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Nicky Smith

There`s talk about Italy improving after their huge November win over South Africa, but barring that ultra lucky victory against the weakest ever Springbok team, there is absolutely no sign of Italy getting better. They still had a dreadful 2016, the domestic competition is in complete disarray and their 2 top franchises Zebre and Treviso are getting annihilated in the Guiness Pro 12 by Irish, Welsh and Scottish sides. And, bottom line, Italy`s squad just doesn`t good enough for a competition like the Six Nations.

Fact is that last year Italy lost easily to every Tier 1 team they faced aside from the South Africa, and in the rest of their games they battled it out with Tier 2 teams like Tonga, USA or Canada. Italy looked like a Tier 2 team last year and not much has changed in 2017, so I can`t see them challenging for wins in the Six Nations. Conor O’Shea is a good coach, but he can not work wonders.

Wales have been written off ahead of this tournament with many rating them as low as the 5th best team out of 6, but that is not particularly relevant. The Welsh have been written off before but proved everyone wrong and they will definitely have a chip on their shoulder to do the same. I don`t see why they couldn`t have a great tournament and they are definitely underrated right now.

A solid win in Rome would put Wales at the top of the standings after the first round. After Scotland beat Ireland and England barely scraped trough against France on Saturday, the tournament has been broken wide open and Wales will feel they have a chance to maybe even win it, but they need to get a good win in Rome. With the introduction of the bonus point system this year, the Welsh will definitely want to put 4 tries past Italy if possible and get an extra point that could be huge at the end of the tournament.

Italy can sometimes be a tough proposition in Rome and they do sometimes start the Six Nations strong, but the morale of Wales should be high after Saturday’s results and I feel that will help the visitors stay focused and not treat Italy lightly. Also, their record against Italy will help. Wales won by 53 points against Italy last year in Cardiff and won the previous meeting in Rome by 39 points (2015).

Wales is the better team, their wing play is better, their kicking game is miles ahead of Italy’s and their scrum looked very good at the end of last year, so the Italians might not even have the advantage there. Parisse will be instrumental for Italy at the breakdown, but that`s pretty much all Italy has going for them.

I believe it all comes down to Italy not having their traditional one game per year in which they play above their means. They generally do have that kind of game once every season, usually in Rome, but that can`t be predicted and I will take my chances. My tip is Wales to cover the 11,5 point spread. Them chasing a bonus point win works in favor of this bet. Prediction: Italy – Wales 13 – 32.

Pick: Wales -11,5
Odds: 1.97 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.73
Event date: 5 February