Betdistrict.com
Big Ivo Karlovic will play against local favorite Aljaz Bedene in the first round at Wimbledon.
Karlovic didn`t have the best year so far for his standards, as he was also bothered by injuries. Nevertheless, Ivo raised his level once the grass court season started, and he reached the final in Hertogenbosch in his first tournament (def. Cilic, lost to Muller). He followed that up with a disappointing performance in Halle, where he lost in the first round to an out of form Youzhny, so expectations for him are rather mixed coming into Wimbledon.
Aljaz Bedene played just one tournament on grass prior to Wimbledon, but he had a pretty good showing in it. The Brit reached the quarterfinals at Hertogenbosch, where he narrowly lost to eventual winner Gilles Muller. Bedene was arguably the better player in that match against an opponent in red hot form, so he will surely have confidence facing another big server in the form of Ivo Karlovic. In other news, Bedene is in fantastic long term form, having posted a 21-4 win – loss record on clay (!!), at one point winning 16 matches in a row (challenger + ATP).
Bet on Karlovic v Bedene and get your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet.com now!Bedene leads the H2H 3-0 (0-0 on grass) and has never lost a set against Karlovic. The last meeting was this year in Budapest, with Bedene winning easily 6-4 6-3 on clay. To be fair Ivo retired in 2 of the 3 Head 2 Head matches, but he is still 0-4 in sets against Bedene. A fair case can be made that Bedene likes to play against Big Ivo, and his recent performance in Hertogenbosch against another big server (Muller) suggests he holds a matchup advantage here.
Karlovic is rated as a solid 1.45 favorite by the bookies, but this might be trickier for him than the oddsmakers suggest. Karlovic didn`t have the best season and even if he reached the final at Hertogenbosch, he looked far from unbeatable in his matches on grass this season.
Karlovic always struggled in Grand Slams over the course of his career and there`s a pretty simple explanation for that – it`s much more difficult for him to maintain the same untouchable level on serve in a best out of 5 match. There will will be fluctuations and one bad game on serve is enough for him to lose a set. At 38 years of age, it might be even more difficult for him.
To top it off, Bedene is a solid, legit player who, while not a specialist on the green, is an all rounder and very capable on grass. He entered the grass court season after a marvelous stretch on clay and he played good tennis at Hertogenbosch, so he will be extremely confident. Bedene is also pretty comfortable when meeting big servers, arguably even holding a matchup advantage over Big Ivo.
Karlovic deserves to be a small favorite in this match as the surface does favor him, but the value is all over Bedene and it wouldn`t be a big surprise if the Brit pulls off a win. Bedene +3 games and over 43,5 games both look like solid bets, but I will choose the handicap – because if Bedene wins 3-0, I would lose the over bet despite being mostly correct in my analysis.
With tiebreaks expected in mosts sets, the +3 handicap looks way too high here, and Bedene should cover it relatively easily even he loses the match in 4 or 5. It can even salvage a void bet if Karlovic wins in three, as 7-6 7-6 7-6 would be the most likely result in that case, but there`s no reason to suggests a straight sets win for Ivo.
My tip is Aljaz Bedene to cover the +3 game handicap in this clash. The +3 point spread is available of tens of bookmakers but if you can`t find it at yours, the +2.5 looks good as well – probably with slightly lower stakes. And if you are feeling a little bit adventurous, maybe you want to go for the top value and back Bedene to win straight up. But, all in all, my recommendation is Aljaz Bedene +3 here. Prediction: Ivo Karlovic – Aljaz Bedene 7-6 6-7 7-6 4-6 7-9.
Pick: Bedene +3 games
Odds: 1.83 @ 10Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.47
Event date: 3 July
