Ward – Isner

Great Britain and USA square off in the Davis Cup World Group first round. The tie will take place at the Emirates Arena in Glasgow, on hard indoor and this will be the second match of the day. Great Britain will probably ride a 1-0 advantage, as Murray is expected to defeat Young. The two met in the same stage last year, with Great Britain winning 3-1 on the road.

James Ward is closer than he has ever been to break the Top 100, climbing as high as the 101th place this year. He is having a decent season so far, beating inferior players and also challenging top guys like Seppi or Verdasco, taking away sets from them. Ward has always relished Davis Cup action, where he has the chance to be the hero as England’s top player (Murray is Scottish, remember). Last year he took the chance and got a key win in Great Britain`s win over USA by beating Sam Querrey on clay, in San Diego.

John Isner just can`t find a way to regain his best level of tennis. The american is way off his top form for about a year and is struggling big time in 2015, winning just 3 matches in 3 tournaments, losing to Muller, Querrey and Matosevic. Last time out it was a bad 4-6 4-6 defeat to Matosevic in the Delray Beach first round which was almost one month ago.

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The Head 2 Head says 1-0 for Isner, but the only meeting was in a 2009 challenger in USA, with John winning in two sets 7-6 7-5. Obviously the Head 2 Head does not say much here and a matchup analysis will not show any particular advantage for either player.

Listen, Isner is the better player here and even in bad form he still plays better tennis than Ward and should win this. But James surely has more confidence right now and in Davis Cup he is always able to step it up a level, often bringing his A Game. Isner did not have a single easy win this season and in this kind of form he will very likely lose at least a set to a focused and motivated Ward, who will be free of pressure after Murray very likely wins – the same situation as last year when he beat Querrey.

My tip is over 40 games, a bet that should be a winner in 4 sets, as we will surely see at least a tiebreak (especially in indoor hard conditions). Prediction: James Ward – John Isner 6-4 6-7 3-6 4-6.

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Pick: over 40 games
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.09
Event date: 6 March