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Janko Tipsarevic takes on Thomas Fabbiano in the first round of the ATP Bucharest tournament. The two players never met before, with the Head 2 Head result standing at 0-0.
Tipsarevic came back from a career threatening injury two weeks ago in Houston and he played surprisingly well for a guy that did not take the court in over 1 year and had difficulties training for much of that period. I really expected the Serbian to look like an amateur, but he defeated a decent player in Clezar and went on to give Giraldo a fight in a 6-7 3-6 loss. With two matches under his belt now, Tipsarevic is expected to improve this week in Bucharest, where he was given a wildcard.
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Thomas Fabbiano is in very good form at the moment results – wise, winning three future tournaments in a row before reaching the semifinals two weeks ago at the Napoli challenger. However, he met really poor opposition and often needed three sets to win his matches – especially his campaign at Napoli was full of tough three setters. He had to play qualifiers here in Bucharest and he was far from impressive, playing very tight matches and having problems against some unknown Romanian players, way outside the Top 500. Fabbiano’s best win this year was against Norbert Gombos, which says a lot.
If this was Tipsarevic’s first game after the 15 month layoff I would never ever back him to win, but after seeing him perform in Houston, he should really take care of Fabbiano today. We get great odds on a Tipsarevic win because of his situation and the good results of Fabbiano, but the Italian is not playing at a good level and only won some tournaments because of rubbish opposition. Tipsarevic said that he is grateful for the wildcard and that he will try not to disappoint anybody, look for him to be very focused and motivated to get some wins and climb back in the rankings.
There will surely be some blackout moments for Janko, but overall he should play even better tennis than he did in Houston and get a win – covering the low game handicap line as well. My tip is Tipsarevic -2,5 games and an 8 unit stake seems like a reasonable investment on this bet. Prediction: Janko Tipsarevic – Thomas Fabbiano 7-5 6-3.
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Pick: Tipsarevic -3
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 21 April
