This one is coming a bit late, so I’ll try to keep it short and concise. I probably wouldn’t have written it up so late, but I really like my bet here. The match is set to start at 19:00 GMT, about two and a half hours from now, and it will take place in the Miami Open quarterfinals.
The main think for me here is that I wasn’t impressed with Bublik at all and I think he reached this stage mostly due to the circumstance of a very accessible draw. He played Djere and Duckworth in the first two rounds, very poor opposition for a Masters on hard courts, and was decent, but not much more than that. In the third round he met Fritz, and I want to talk a little bit about that match.
I think it is fair to say that Bublik was second best for the entire match against Fritz, but somehow he escaped with a 6-7 6-3 6-4 win. The match can be summed up pretty simply: Fritz was winning his service games with ease, while Bublik was struggling and saving break points on most of his service games. Unfortunately for Fritz, he had a couple bad games on serve and Bublik was exceptional in the important points (you have to give him that), so that was the match. Fritz was 3/11 on break points, Bublik 5/6.
I did not see anything special from Bublik aside from mental strength, and I think he will be outplayed by Sinner, a better player in better form.
The young Italian is arguably the biggest young sensation on tour and he is coming after a clinic display against Ruusovori, whom he beat 6-3 6-2. He has been excellent since turning around his second round match against Khachanov, where he had some problems with the heat for a set and a half. In fact, Sinner has been excellent all year and is really looking at the top of his game right now.
Bublik took a set from Sinner in Dubai two weeks ago (their only H2H meeting), and that’s the biggest concern I have about this bet. I think the odds are quite fantastic, I would have priced Sinner much lower.
I’ll take the Italian to win in straight. Prediction: Jannick Sinner – Alexander Bublik 7-5 6-3.