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It`s that time of the year when the most important Rugby tests are played and the first interesting meeting will be the one between Japan and Argentina, set to be played in Tokyo on Saturday morning (european time).
I feel obligated to say, for those not too familiar with rugby, that these tests are of great importance in the rugby world, counting for ranking and honor. Even though they are basically friendly matches, there is no difference between these tests and matches counting for an official competition. They are treated with full focus by all nations.
Japan shocked the world in the 2015 World Cup, beating South Africa for one of the biggest upsets in sports history. Japan won two more games in that tournament, against Samoa and USA, but was drubbed 45-10 by Scotland and narrowly missed on qualification from the group stage. Now the Japanese are eager to build on those performances and create a strong team for the World Cup they will host in 2019. However, much has chanced since the 2015 RWC. Japan lost coach Eddie Jones (hired by England), the main architect of that success and will play this test with a virtually different team, as I will elaborate below.
Argentina won a single game in the recent Rugby Championship, but their performance during the tournament was excellent. The Pumas challenged in each and every match, even against the mighty New Zealand and only their inability to maintain the same level for 80 minutes cost them another win or two. They were often the better team in those matches, but ended up losing. Argentina will enter these November tests with the best available team and is definitely eager to get some wins under their belt after narrowly missing out on more victories against the giants New Zealand, South Africa and Australia.
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Only 12 players that played at the World Cup will be in Japan’s squad ahead of this clash and they called up 17 uncapped players for this test. Japan also misses a fair number of players due to injury / unavailable for selection. Argentina on the other hand will field its best lineup, aside from the classic absentees Bosch, Imhoff and Ayerza. The Pumas even get key players like Isla and Sanchez back.
Japan: lineup is not out yet and it`s impossible to predict with so many changes in the squad.
Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Moroni, 13 Matías Orlando, 12 Jerónimo de la Fuente, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Tomás Lezana, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera
I do not expect this Japan side to look like the team that impressed in last year’s World Cup and even then, in their best moment ever, they were still demolished by Scotland – with the win against South Africa clearly being a fluke. Even that side would have big problems staying within touching distance of Argentina.
Now Japan enters this game with a new manager, having just one training camp under this new manager. They have a virtually new team with 17 players that are set to make their debut for the team!
It`s early to say if Japan is on the right track or not, but it will definitely take a lot of time for them to play at their full potential. Meanwhile, Argentina is looking scary good ahead of this match, set to play its best available lineup that was so impressive in the Rugby Championship.
At this moment Japan is nothing more than a Tier 2 Rugby side and they will have to work really hard to resemble the team that impressed in last year’s World Cup. And, as previously said, that team was actually not that fantastic, it was simply a case of a miracle happening in their win against South Africa. They played three tests in June this year, barely beating Canada by 4 in Vancouver and losing twice at home against Scotland, 12-26 and 16-21 – Scotland, obviously, being (much) weaker than Argentina.
Expect this new look Japan team to make a lot of errors, as they are not used to playing together. A full strength Argentina side, which is a class above Japan in terms of strength and quality, should punish those errors big time. I can easily see the Pumas escaping on a few fast breaks and demolishing Japan tactically. Of course, Argentina is also superior in every segment of the game, from the scrum to the game on the wings.
Argentina is an absolutely relentless team, treating every moment and every game with full focus, so I am confident they will cover the point spread. Keep in mind, Japan will miss a number of important players and that is a killer for any rugby team except New Zealand – especially for a Tier 2 side. Japan`s attacking style will also fall right into Argentina’s hands, while Japan’s weakness at the set piece, including penalties, will go a long way to help Argentina cover the spread.
All in all I recommend a bet on Argentina here, my tip is the Pumas to cover the 14 point handicap. Prediction: Japan – Argentina 18 – 40.
Pick: Argentina -14
Odds: 1.91 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 5 November
