Japan – Ireland

With Japan, Scotland and Samoa all fighting with realistic chances for the second place in Pool A of the 2019 RWC, the hosts will know that any points they can get on Saturday against Ireland could prove decisive for qualification.

Japan has been sloppy in a 30-10 victory over Russia last Friday, in the opening game of the World Cup. The hosts were expected to put on a better performance and win by a bigger margin, but they started slow until running away with the game in the second half. Nerves surely played a part, which is understandable. Japan came into this World Cup in good form, having won the 2019 Pacific Nations Cup, and they will fancy their chances of advancing to the quarterfinals – although it will be a difficult task.

Ireland didn`t have the best Six Nations this year, finishing 3rd, but the Irish were always going to be one of the favorites in the World Cup. This is an exceptionally strong group, as shown multiple times over the past few years, and Ireland proved its strength last weekend against Scotland – claiming a dominant, impressive 27-3 victory. Ireland showed few (if any) weaknesses in completely subduing one of the better sides in World Rugby.

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Team news & lineups:

Japan will make a few changes to the team that took on Russia last Friday. Mafi comes back from injury, while captain Leach has been surprisingly left on the bench. Ireland will make four changes to the lineup which beat down Scotland on Sunday. Sexton will be a big miss for them, while Aki and Henshaw will also be left out, but Kearney and Earls return.

Japan: 15 Ryohei Yamanaka, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 William Tupou, 10 Yu Tamura, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Amanaki Lelei Mafi, 7 Pieter Labuschagne (c), 6 Kazuki Himeno, 5 James Moore, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Chris Farrell, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy

Ireland is looking terrific and will try to bully Japan in the scrum and with the high ball, but the hosts are a quality side themselves, with a lot of pride and resilience. They will not go down without a fight at home.

Japan’s recent history shows they can keep up with the top sides in the world, as in the last 2-3 years they have drawn with France, beat Italy, lost by single digits with Wales and Scotland and lost by 20 points in England. On the other hand they did have a few bigger losses as well, most relevant being two home defeats against Ireland last year by 22 and 28 points.

Indeed, Ireland seems to be a pretty bad matchup for Japan, but the Irish are missing a few key players here, and they are not the same team without Johnny Sexton. Japan could capitalize on this.

The Japanese are sure to fight their hearts out at home in front of their own fans, and they should be able to make this a contest. The Irish have no reason to go all gung ho and tire themselves trying to get the biggest win possible. Any victory will do, as they are almost sure to finish first in this group. The line is pretty high at more than 20 points, so Japan is worth a try here in my eyes.

My tip will be Japan to cover the +21,5 point handicap. Keeping the stakes reasonable though, as Ireland is indeed scary good. Prediction: Japan – Ireland 14 – 31.

Pick: Japan +21,5
Odds: 1.86 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.02
Event date: 28 September