Jean Pascal – Lucian Bute

Firstly, I won`t deny that I would love my Romanian guy Bute to defeat Pascal here (also as a revenge for my favourite fighter Adrian Diaconu, defeated by Pascal twice), but I am pretty confident that by now you have learned that I am objective in my picks. Nevertheless, you deserve to know when there is a potential subjectivity in my tips so that you can draw your own conclusions. With this out of the way, let`s hit it with the Bute – Pascal preview.

Jean Pascal and Lucian Bute will face off in a light heavyweight bout counting for the honorific WBC Diamond title in what is dubbed as being the biggest boxing match in Canadian history. Pascal is a Haitian born Canadian while Bute is a Romanian with Canadian as a second nationality. Bell Center in Montreal will host the 21.000 paying spectators Sunday Morning at 01:00 GMT (start of the gala). The bout was initially supposed to take place in the summer, but it was postponed due to a hand injury suffered by Bute in training.

Jean Pascal (27 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 16KO) is the bookies favorite for this fight and I can’t fault the logic for which is priced under 1.70. He`s a strong fighter with a lot of experience in big fights (Froch, Dawson, Hopkins twice) and faces an opponent that hasn`t fought in over a year, took a horrific beating from Carl Froch in his second to last match and was unimpressive in winning his last bout against Grachev in a points decision. Also, Bute (31 wins, 1 loss, 24 KO) was sidelined with an injury that required surgery in the summer, so that`s never something good. Lastly, the romanian moved up from super middleweight for this big-money event.

Bute was viewed as the best super middleweight behind Andre Ward not long ago but questions were raised about the lack of class opposition he faced and critics were quick to label him as being exposed after Froch gave him a solid beating and stopped him in the 5th round. Bute`s chin appears fragile, as Froch was not the first to turn his lights off (Andrade in 2008 did the same but Bute won in a controversial ending). However, Lucian has tremendous technique and a devastating punch that has the potential to knock anyone out. His speed is also off the charts and he is usually able to avoid getting hit. It`s no wonder he defended his IBF super middleweight world title 9 times before losing to Froch.

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Pascal is the more rugged fighter here with a little more experience in big fights, and unlike Bute he is a natural light heavyweight. However, his punching power is not off the charts and after losing to Hopkins in 2011 he sufferes some injuries which prevented him to appear in any relevant fights. Pascal is far from Bute in terms of technique and he will have to attack early on (like he usually does) hoping to expose Bute`s chin. Pascal is well known for his lack of stamina, as he tends to tire late in the rounds and in the second part of a 12 round bout. Much has been said about Pascal`s tight loss to Froch in 2008 (compared with the beating Bute took) but it`s wrong to judge the matchup from that perspective. Different fighters, different styles, different timeframes.

Before analyzing this bet I was sure that I will pick Pascal to win and I actually liked the odds on him. I was surprised that many US boxing editors were predicting the Romanian to win, as I was thinking Bute’s questionable chin will not whitstand the power of Pascal. I was also very worried about Bute`s lack of matches in the last 2 years. However, based on the facts, I have changed my opinion completely. Pascal himself fought even less than Bute in the last 2 years, having just 2 matches since 2011 against total mugs like Kuziemski and Blades. Bute faced Froch in 2012 and a very dangerous Grachev later that year. Also, despite Pascal being a natural light heavyweight, his power is not so impressive, proof of that being his poor KO record. What hurt Bute against Froch was not only the power of the punches, but the incredible fast hands of the British, and Pascal by no means has that quickness.

While I can see the logic behind a bet on Pascal, my input here is Bute to win and I am very confident after thoroughly analyzing the matchup. Surely the romanian (which is the better fighter overall) learned from the Froch blowout and with his career on the line today, he should be able to use his height, quickness and tactical inteligence to keep Pascal at bay in the early rounds. Once Jean tires in the middle rounds, Bute should be able to easily control the fight and only a lucky punch could save Pascal. My pick would be Bute to win a points decision but I will go with the simple win, as Lucian has a great KO record and can always catch Pascal with an upercut or a bodyshot. Great 2.38 price by Ladbrokes on the Romanian to win this and I will go with maximum stakes on this one. I really don’t think Pascal will be able to hurt Bute early on and if I`m right (which I am confident I am), than Lucian will be the overwhelming favorite to win late in the fight, especially if it will last the whole 12 rounds. For what it`s worth, Bute is also the crowd favorite in Montreal, so he will get a lot of support. It is important to state that despite the height advantage Bute has, the two fighters have the same reach. Pascal has a classic stance, while Bute is a southpaw, which is always an edge.

The match will be televised by HBO in the States, DigiSport in Romania and of course live streaming on the web.

Pick: Lucian Bute
Odds: 2.38 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 13.8
Event date: 19 January

Editor Facts

• Rostick has a 24,2% yield in January (7w-5l-1v in tips)