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There could hardly be a bigger contrast in styles of tennis when big hitter, unambitious Jerzy Janowicz takes on defensive baseliner and massive fighter Carlos Berlocq. First round match at the last tournament prior to the US Open, Winston Salem.
Janowicz is one of the most talented player on tour, his power is incredible and on his day he can mix it up with the best of them. However, he is rarely in that kind of form and the last year has been very, very poor for the Pole. He had an awful season, dropping almost 50 places in the rankings, he has a 13-18 record at ATP level and lost to guys like Lajovic, Polanski, Falla, Coric, Llodra, Herbert and the list can go on and on. However, Jerzy got one of the biggest wins and biggest performances of the year for him last week, reaching the 3rd round in Cincinnati and beating Dimitrov along the way (lost easily to Benneteau).
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Berlocq is actually better ranked than Janowicz right now (59 vs. 65) despite being a much less talented player. The Argentinian is one of the biggest fighters on the ATP tour, a very similar player to Ferrer but at an inferior level. He is a clay court specialist (he would be a favorite against Jerzy on clay) and does not fancy hard courts, but he did have a couple of solid matches on this surface and proved he can play and produce upsets. Berlocq had a pretty good year, including winning the Oeiras title over Berdych. Short term he is in mediocre form and suffered a slight injury one month ago, but he recovered and he is ready to go.
The H2H is 1-0 for Janowicz, he won the only meeting on indor hard in 2012, in Moscow. An analysis of the matchup will say that the surface at Winston Salem heavily favors Janowicz, but Berlocq`s grinding style of tennis will pose a big problem for the inconsistent pole.
The analysis could not get any simpler here: Janowicz is the better player but he is terribly inconsistent and more often than not he loses to low ranked players early in the tournament. A fighter and consistent player like Berlocq can take advantage of that, even on hard courts. He will keep the ball in play and if Janowicz is not playing well Berlocq will win. Also I can not see Janowicz performing 2 weeks in a row after defeating Dimitrov last week. I could also see Janowicz retiring if things don`t go his way. He is not the biggest fighter out there, he played more tennis in Cincinnati than he was used to lately and the US Open is just around the corner. Also, he did retire a couple of times in the last 2 years, so it would not be a shock, that is why I will place my bet at Unibet, a bookie that will validate the bet if a player retires after 1 set. If Jerzyplays well he will win, but that`s a big “If”. Berlocq to win would not be an upset and the fact that the odds on him are dropping big is not a surprise. There`s a 50-50 chance here. My tip is Berlocq to win. Prediction: Jerzy Janowicz – Carlos Berlocq 6-7 2-6.
Pick: Berlocq
Odds: 3.00 @ Unibet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 12
Event date: 18 August
no way this is a 50/50 match,berloq is a disaster player on hard court.no matter how a big fighter he is. i respect your analyses , but whi did you not mention that berloq did not play a match on hard court since march when he lost 2/6 2/6 againt brown,a mutch weaker player then janowycz.i think this is a crucial argument, i am shocked that you didn t write these in your prediction. sorry to say but this is a rookye mistake. especialy in tennis, how important is a fact like these
I respect your insight and agree with everything you said. Obviously I was way off but I still think the bet was worth taking. The reasons why I did not get too much into berlocq`s results is that I clearly stated he is a poor hard court player and worse player than Janowicz. Of course, it would have been better to add that info, but I don`t think it was a huge mistake and I don`t feel I was misleading anyone. Point was: Janowicz a better player, Berlocq poor hard court player, but odds are worth taking because there`s a 50-50 chance for Janowicz to show up and play decent.