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Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Novak Djokovic will square off in the last men’s singles match of the day on Phillipe Chatrier, in front of what will surely be an electric French crowd. My analysis suggests we have some great options regarding what to bet on this one.
Tsonga did not have his best season so far in 2014. His best achievements were a Roland Garros 4th round, a final at Marseille and a quarterfinal at Monte Carlo – not exactly up to standards, and this has seen Tsonga drop out for the top 10 for the first time in years. However, Jo Wilfried seemed to show some improvements lately on clay, almost beating Federer in Monte Carlo, defeating the likes of Fognini, Anderson or Dolgopolov. His best tennis of the year though came here in Paris. Excellent play from Jo, who did not lose a set despite meeting very dangerous opponents in each of the first three rounds: Roger Vasselin, Melzer and Janowicz.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Djokovic is the man to beat on tour right now. With a 24-3 win/loss record he is leadint the ATP Race to London and lost to just 2 players this year: Federer (twice) and Wawrinka. Nole is on the back of a brilliant showing in Rome, winning the title (albeit not easy) and beating Nadal in the final, proving again the he can complete the job on clay. Nole will try to achieve the career grand slam by winning Roland Garros and many are tipping him to do just that. The Djoker had an easy time against Sousa and Chardy in the first two rounds. He played solid in the 3rd round as well, but Cilic managed to put some pressure on him and won a set: 6-2 6-3 6-7 6-4.
Novak Djokovic leads the H2H 11-5, including winning he last 9 meetings. Many of them were one sided, but in 2012 here in Paris Tsonga had match points in a dramatic 5 set loss. On clay the score is 2-0 for Djokovic.
I do not expect Tsonga to realistically challenge for the win here, but the fact is that the frenchman has regained his form and is playing some of his best tennis at the moment. I can not see Djokovic cruising to a 3 set win. I don`t fancy the game handicap because Tsonga usually loses by a big margin with Djokovic, but when he finds rhythm on serve he is able to at least push a set to a tiebreak and can win it. Is hould happen at least one time today the way Jo is playing: we have seen that Djokovic was troubled when Cilic served well and was aggresive, and that is exactly what Jo will attempt today. I expect Djokovic to win, but not in easy fasion. An important factor for the analysis is also the fact that Jo will have the crowd support, which always allows him to play his best tennis. Regarding what to bet, I was thinking a +2,5 game handicap on Tsonga, but I find the over 36.5 game line much more valuable – it has better odds and it can also be covered in 3 sets, even though unlikely. Great odds on Pinnacle for this one, they might start dropping. All in all my tip is over 36,5 games. Prediction: Jo Wilfried Tsonga – Novak Djokovic 6-4 2-6 6-7 2-6.
Pick: over 36,5 games
Odds: 2.02 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.16
Event date: 1 June
