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With Switzerland leading the Davis Cup final 2-1, Federer can win the trophy for his country today – but he will have to put on a much better performance than he did against Monfils in order to do so.
Tsonga has been really disappointing this season aside for that marvelous run in Toronto, where he won the tournament over Federer. Jo Wilfried entered the Davis Cup final in poor form and he did not improve much in his 4 set defeat against Wawrinka. He did play a fantastic second set, but lacked consistency and in the end never challenged Stan for the win. The clay here in Lille obviously doesn`t suit his style and he was very angry with the silent French crowd as well. I reckon Arnauld Clement would replace Tsonga for this 4th rubber but he does not have better options, as Gasquet is in even worse form, Simon hasn`t been called up (big mistake in my opinion) and Benneteau may not have the required quality.
Federer was expected to be the difference maker in this final after a fantastic season, but the back injury he sustained in London at the World Tour finals clearly hindered him Friday and Roger ended up being blown off the court by an in form Monfils. Roger ended up playing doubles as well and it proved to be a wise choice, as Switzerland not only defeated Benneteau / Gasquet but also did it very quickly, so Fedex did not spend too much energy on the court. Roger is expected to be much better than Friday today with 2 more days passed over his back injury and also with additional time to get used to the surface.
Bet on Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs. Roger Federer with the best Davis Cup final odds at Unibet.
The matchup analysis might not say too much, nobody holds an edge in this department. Federer leads the H2H 11-5 (2-1 this year), but lost the previous meeting with Tsonga in Toronto. On clay the H2H is 2-1 and clearly this surface does not favor any of the two players.
I expect Federer to win it for Switzerland today but my tip will be under 40,5 games. The analysis is simple: if Federer plays at a decent level he will surely cruise past Tsonga, the Frenchman is just in too poor of a form to cause problems and I really doubt he will come up with the goods in his last match of the year after a mostly miserable season. On the other hand, if Federer’s back is still bad I can see him losing and he won`t get to 5 sets either – he might take one, but his level of play against Monfils was just too poor, his serve was not effective.
All in all, my tip is under 40,5 games. I`m also counting on the fact that this clay takes a lot from the serving power, so tiebreaks are less likely than on other surfaces (no tiebreaks in 3 matches so far int he Davis Cup final). Prediction: Jo Wilfried Tsonga – Roger Federer 4-6 4-6 4-6, but of course I`m not putting too much emphasys on this correct score, it depends how fit will Federer be – though, as I said, I do expect him to be near his best level and win.
Pick: under 40,5 games
Odds: 2.00 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 23 November
