Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych will square off in arguably the most interesting Round 16 match at the ATP Masters tournament in Paris.
The Frenchman was on fire on Wednesday against Bautista Agut, dominating from start to finish and leaving no chance to a good player like the Spaniard. It was 6-2 6-2, with a lot of great shots and energy by Tsonga. After struggling with injury early in the season, Jo Wilfried is playing very well of late, recently reaching the final in Shanghai (def. Anderson, Nadal, lost to Djokovic) among other good results this year.
Berdych had a winning week in his last tournament, claiming the trophy at Shanghai and playing good tennis, even though he did not have the best opposition. But Tomas did not show a good level in his first match here in Paris. The Czech player was leading Roger Vasselin by one set and one break, before suddenly collapsing, losing the second set and almost losing the match. Tomas was very lucky to escape with the win, as he was clearly the second best player in the 3rd set, being saved by a single fluke break point, which he converted at 5-5.
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Berdych leads the Head 2 Head 7-3 (6-2 on hard), but the previous meeting between the two was utterly dominant for Tsonga – a 6-3 6-2 6-7 6-3 win in the Roland Garros Round 16. Berdych was in incredible form coming into that match, but he had no chance against Tsonga and only luck saved him from an easy 3 sets loss. That encounter clearly did not suggest that Berdych might have a matchup advantage, as the overall Head 2 Head indicates.
I`m not quite sure that Berdych’s struggles against Roger-Vasselin were due to it being the first match. Tomas did not look great all match and it was just a matter of Roger-Vasselin believing in himself. As soon as he started to think he can win, the Frenchman was all over Berdych, who was passive, did not serve well and did not look too motivated. Berdych wasn`t blowing errors all over the place, he simply did not have pace / movement / power and I`m pretty sure he won`t be devastated if he loses today.
At the same time, Tsonga was impressive against Bautista Agut, not making too many errors, serving well and staying very cool in the few difficult moments. He`s at home (where we know he always does well – just look at Roland Garros), he`s confident after a good season and that is visible in his game.
Another factor to take into account is that Berdych will play at the World Tour finals in London after this tournament, while Tsonga has not qualified, so this will be the last event of the year for him – meaning more motivation, especially as he plays at home. Jo Wilfried looked ready and fired up against Bautista Agut, he really wants to do well here and with Paris always prone to upsets, he has a chance to record a great performance.
My tip is Tsonga to win. You simply have to feel that the Frenchman is the better and more motivated player right now. This bet will likely also hold excellent trading opportunities, as the odds will likely drop, setting the stage for a sure bet before the match. Prediction: Jo Wilfried Tsonga – Tomas Berdych 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Tsonga
Odds: 1.80 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 5 November
Great pick and preview +1
Good luck! My pick here is Tsonga , too…
It`s peculiar that the odds dropped all day, down to an average of 1.64 compared to 1.76 last night and now suddenly they are going up fast. 1.64 was indeed too low, but now they are going way too high for Jo.
what is happening with Jo
I would like to blame it on the “injury”, but I don`t think that was it. Berdych raised his level, Tsonga dropped his. Did not expect this considering the circumstances with the World Tour finals and Tsonga playing at home. Poor bet.
Imo it had everything to do with Tsongas injury.. I mean he could barely move around the court, so the match never really started. Berdych had chances to take second set 6-0, there was no contest unfortunately. Bad luck for us Tsonga betters.
In retrospect, you are probably right. But myself, when I write a pick read by hundreds of people, I have to take responsibility and not blame it on bad luck, unless it is obvious. Especially a 10 unit pick.