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Well this preview will be a bit of a brain twister, as Joao Souza (Brazil) takes on Joao Sousa (Portugal) in the first round at the new ATP Geneva tournament. Joao Sousa (Portugal) is a ~1.65 odds favorite and I reckon the bookies got this one right. Maybe this will be easier to read by putting a face to the names, so see picture on the right.
Souza (Brazil, 79 ATP) has been in dreadful form in the spring – summer clay season so far, losing all of his 4 matches – including a 1-6 0-6 defeat to Kukushkin in Barcelona or a 6-7 4-6 defeat to Mahut in his last outing in Madrid. The Brazilian is just not finding any rhythm right now and I doubt he will be able to do it all of a sudden in Geneva, knowing that he`s a player of morale, blowing unforced errors all over the place when he is not in a good mental state.
Sousa (Portugal, 51 ATP) hasn`t had much success himself in recent months, especially considering that the expectations were pretty high after he posted some excellent results over the course of last year. However, Sousa showed improvement lately, passing qualies and reaching the 2nd round in Madrid (beat Janowicz, lost a close 6-7 5-7 to Wawrinka). Last week in Rome he played a decent match against Isner, but eventually lost in two sets.
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The Head 2 Head is 0-0, these two players never met before on tour. They have more or less similar styles and both are good on clay, so nothing to shout about the Head 2 Head or the matchup. Form and quality should be the ones making the difference.
Sousa (Portugal) is not at the top of his game right now and he can play better, but clearly he`s in better form than his opponent and a better player as well. Sousa’s (Portugal) main problem recently was that he was unable to break down consistent players. He was solid in rallies for 6-8 shots, but than followed an unforced errors. That won’t be a problem against the Brazilian Souza, as even in his best days he is not known for his consistency – and right now he can barely keep the ball in play.
My tip is Joao Sousa (Portugal) to win. 7 units seems like a reasonable stake for this bet. Prediction: Joao Souza – Joao Sousa 6-7 4-6.
Live streaming for Souza vs. Sousa (ATP Geneva) available for all players at Bet365.
Pick: Joao Sousa (Portugal)
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.76
Event date: 18 May
