Konta – Pliskova

Local favorite Johanna Konta will take on Karolina Pliskova in the WTA Eastbourne semifinals. Both women had to play two matches yesterday, with Pliskova maybe in with a small advantage due to having a couple more hours of rest.

Despite reaching a final and now a semifinal in her 3 tournaments on grass this season, Konta was rather poor (to say the least) on this surface – and those who watched her play know exactly why. Konta reached the final at Nottingham but only because she faced very poor opposition, and she was badly outplayed in the final by the young Vekic despite being a 1.20 favorite. She followed that with a 2nd round exit at Birmingham, where blown off the court by Vandeweghe. Here in Eastbourne Konta did better, passing Cirstea, Ostapenko and Kerber, losing a single set.

Pliskova chose to play her only grass court tournament prior to Wimbledon here at Eastbourne, and did well to reach the semifinals with wins against Riske, Peng and Kuznetsova. She lost a set against Svetlana in the quarters and trailed 1-4 in the decider, but showed great composure to dominate the last 5 games with authority and claim the win.

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Pliskova leads the H2H 5-1 (3-0 on grass) and she seems to have a matchup advantage over Konta, including (or especially) on the green. Konta’s movement is not good enough for her to deal with Pliskova’s big serves and aggressive shots (we saw her being embarrassed by Vandeweghe in Birmingham with that style). Still, it`s worth mentioning that Konta won the last meeting back in 2016, and most of the matches were settled in a deciding set.

Despite Kotna putting together a run of wins here in Eastbourne, her level was again mediocre and she didn`t show anything special. She was second best in her match against Ostapenko, was trailing 2-4 in the third set and even she probably doesn`t know how she pulled off that win. In the quarters, Kerber was poor, as she was this entire season.

Konta’s tennis right now isn`t that good, she often seems devoid of any real solutions to win points and usually needs to dig extra deep and / or get lucky in order to grind out games, sets or wins. She can do it when the opposition helps her out, but against an in form opponent she comes short.

Pliskova showed some weakness herself in the quarters against Kuznetsova, trailing 6-7 6-2 1-4 at one point, and some may argue that Svetlana lost because she was tired after the rain forced a very crowded schedule at Eastbourne on Thursday.

However, Pliskova did play better tennis than Konta this week, and despite some ups and downs, she was often very close to her best. As the H2H suggests, Konta doesn`t have high chances to beat Pliskova when the Czech is at her best – she just doesn`t have the style for it.

Pliskova had a better season than Konta and she has a good matchup against the Brit. With Konta clearly not in her top form, it`s hard to see what she can do to snatch a win.

I expect Pliskova to play at a very high level for a set or so, demolishing Konta during that period, and I see the rest of the match being closer – with the two splitting sets, or with Pliskova edging a 2-0 victory. My tip is Pliskova to win. Prediction: Johanna Konta – Karolina Pliskova 2-6 6-7.

Pick: Pliskova
Odds: 1.80 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 30 June