Johansson – Raonic

Swedish tennis legend Joachim Johansson came out of retirement to play his first tournament in 3 years. Former world no.9 joins Vincinguerra in a peculiar habit that these swedish players have, of playing one or two tournaments or Davis Cup once in a couple of years. Well, actually it`s not so peculiar when you think of the injuries they had over their careers, but it makes an interesting story.

Let`s take a deeper look at this Johansson guy, “Pim-Pim” as he is nicknamed. An amazing talent, Joachim Johansson had a bunch of health problems that prevented him to be even better than he was. The last time he was able to play a whole year without injuries was in 2004, at 22 years old. He reached no.9 in the rankings in the start of the 2005 season and from then on his health did not allow him to compete at a top level anymore. He alternated seasons in which he played 20-30 matches with years in which he played 1-2 tournaments until retiring in 2009. He came back to play a Davis Cup tie in 2010 and again Davis Cup in 2011, but has not played an official match since then. He is only 31 years old! “Pim-Pim” again came back of retirement for a single tournament here at Stockholm as he says, but he left the door open for continuing a little bit longer. While he did not play a single match, he trained hard and his performance here at Stockholm was marvelous. Joachim has the ability to play well at home even without competitive matches under his belt, just like he did in 2010 and 2011. I remember 2011 when he played in-form Gabashvilli in Davis Cup, I bet on the russian being sure that Johansson is totally out of shape. Well, he demolished Teimuraz who was unable to get the smallest chance on Joachim`s serve. He is scary to play against in Sweden.

Johansson is one of the prototypes of big servers today, but he also posses a wider range of shots. His first ball is untouchable and even with all the years being out of the tour, his serve has not declined one bit. He has a super offensive game, going for winners both with his forehand and his single handed backhand, as well as having a top net play. His gameplan is simple right now: hold serve and wait for that return game where his highly aggressive shots are going in – that`s when he`ll get the break. Johansson has been impressive here at Stockholm, getting past some decent players in the qualies (Chvojka, Bachinger, Dzumhur) and demolishing Falla in the first round (6-1 6-3). He won all 4 matches in straight sets, without losing a single service game!

But now Johansson will face a totally different kind of player in Milos Raonic. The canadian is top 10 material at the moment and is in blistering form. After a good showing at the US Open he won in Bangkok, reached Tokyo final and lost to Wawrinka in Shanghai R16. Raonic had a bye in the first round here at Stockholm. His serve is working well and his baseline game looks more consistent than ever.

Of course, these two players have never met before. They are both huge servers, surely between the best 5 on tour right now. Raonic is more patient and consistent from the baseline while Johansson goes for a winner at almost every shot, from any side, and also has the ability to play drop shots or be very effective at the net. Both guys love indoor hard, for the swede it`s the best surface, Raonic prefers outdoor hard.

Surely this will be a battle of first serves. Raonic is of course the better player (younger, matches under his belt, healthier, more consistent, moving a tad better) and being a top guy in tennis at the moment he is expected to win against Johansson. But the swede is in fantastic form and at home he has always been impressive, no matter what the circumstances were. Since Raonic is not a great returner, Johansson should be able to convert his service game without too many problems, while the canadian, with his own serve and much better consistency from the baseline, should also stay clear of break points. The line is set very high but breaks of serve will be a rarity for sure and the way Johansson played amazing so far, I was more than impressed, and with the crowd being electric behind him, he has decent chances of getting a set. I don`t know how much it will count that Johansson did not play guys that are as good as Raonic. He dictated the tempo and Raonic is not the player to take that from him. If he would play Haas for example, you could say he could not play the same against Haas like he played against Falla. But against Raonic he will again dictate the tempo, at least on his serve. He could also have some tricks up his sleeve on some of the key points in the match (drop shots, contre-pieds) against a not so mobile Raonic. I am choosing the over instead of the handicap on Joachim because if he does win a set, he could break down physically in the 3rd.

“Pim-Pim” has always played well against big servers, you can see his record with Roddick, the top server of his age: 2-1 for Andy but in very close games, and Andy was at his absolute best back then. With Milos surely not at his best in his first game here at Stockholm, keeping his stamina for later rounds, my pick is Johansson – Raonic 6-7 6-7, with no breaks of serve.

Pick: over 23,5 games
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.88
Event date: 16 October

Editor Facts

• Rostick is 13 for 19 in October