Betdistrict.com
Clash between big servers here in the Shanghai third round, as John Isner takes on the Nadal – slayer Feliciano Lopez.
Isner is in shaky form for some time and he did not manage to produce his best tennis at Shanghai either. Despite reaching the third round he struggled big time with Andujar and Johnson, being saved by his excellent serve, playing three tiebreaks in 5 sets of tennis. I doubt Big John will manage to regain his rhythm so late in the season after a disappointing US hard court series so we should know what to expect from him today – a solid performance, but not out of the ordinary.
Lopez is on the back of a fantastic 6-3 7-6 win over Nadal in the second round, but it has to be said Rafa struggled with fitness, he had some obvious problems (diagnosed with a beginning of appendicitis) and did not manage to get close to his best level of tennis. Good performance by Feliciano nevertheless after he struggled to get past Kokkinakis in the first round (6-7 6-3 6-4). Lopez had an amazing couple of months in the middle of the season, especially on grass but also on hard courts in Montreal, he was breaking all kinds of serving records, but in the last month he lost some steam and last week he was blown out 6-1 6-2 by Berdych in Beijing.
The H2H is 2-2 (1-1 on hard), with Lopez winning the only meeting in the last 2 years a couple of months ago at Wimbledon – a tiebreak thriller that ended 6-7 7-6 7-6 7-5. It`s obvious nobody holds the matchup advantage here, it`s all about form and the man who manages to get the best of the very few chances on the opposing serve.
Considering Isner`s shaky form and Lopez`s win over Nadal, the first instinct here for most tennis punters (including me) would be to back the Spaniard. However, the fact is that Lopez is not playing brilliant right now either and his win over Nadal was largely facilitated by Rafa`s physical problems. The value still lies on Feliciano as he is the slight favorite in my opinion, but the best odds here are for a first set tiebreak to be played. These guys are serving bombs (surely top 5 in serving this season), they both played a lot of tiebreaks so far in Shanghai and their H2H meetings have been tiebreak festivals, especially the last one at Wimbledon. There`s every chance a breaker will occur especially in the first set, when nobody will want to lose control of the match and both players will focus on keeping serve. My tip is a first set tiebreak to happen. Prediction: John Isner – Feliciano Lopez 6-7 6-7.
Pick: First set tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 2.02 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.16
Event date: 9 October
