Isner – Melzer

John Isner takes on Jurgen Melzer in a vintage matchup with a lot of betting value in the Indian Wells second round.

Isner is having an awful season and it`s not just 2015, he was bad in 2014 as well. Big John just can`t find his rhythm and has won just three matches on the tour this year, losing the last 4. Isner is on the back of a morale killing Davis Cup weekend in which he lost to Murray in 3 sets but more importantly he managed to lose to James Ward in 5 sets, virtually gifting Great Britain the win. John had a bye in the first round here at Indian Wells so this will be his first match.

Melzer is not able to find himself for some time now and it looks like his career is heading to an end. He lost to Elias Ymer in the Davis Cup last weekend after previously losing against two players ranked outside the Top 200. Overall the Austrian was in putrid form prior to Indian Wells, but somehow he managed to put together a string of results, passing qualifications (def. Russell) and beating Novikov in two easy sets in the first round – showing glimpses of the vintage tennis that almost made him a Top 5 player a few years ago. He`s still light years away from that kind of form, but he did play ok this week, showing obvious improvements.

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Looking at Melzer’s recent results, one might say you have to be insane to back him against any Top 100 player, let alone a guy like Isner who is still in the Top 20. However, this match has special circumstances and there is massive value to be taken on the Austrian.

The most important fact is that Melzer is an absolute beast against big servers, he and Federer are probably the best players on tour against “serve bots”. The Head 2 Head with Isner is a proof of that, Melzer leading 3-1 (2-1 on hard), including wins in 2012 and last year, when he was in the same poor form as now. The Head 2 Head is no fluke here, he also dominated Karlovic over the years, he is 1-1 with Raonic and so on. I remember a final with Raonic a couple of years back, Milos was on the rise, the new big thing, Melzer was broken down and old, had odds of about 4.00, but defeated Milos in 2 sets. The guy is just reading big servers like few can.

The second factor is that Melzer, with his talent, is able to make a couple of solid tournaments each year despite poor overall form – and when he shows up, it`s always for a major event. Last year he had three good tournaments, two of those being Master series. This year he had two – here at the Indian Wells and at the Australian Open (beat Estrella, Darcis). Clearly his motivation rises in such competitions and he is able to take it to a whole different level.

With the Head 2 Head matchup and Melzer’s good form this week in Indian Wells, there are excellent chances for an upset to happen. Isner is the better player of course, even in this poor form, but if Melzer manages to build on the tennis he played this week, he will probably win it. He has matches under his belt, he has a huge matchup advantage over Isner and the American is totally out of shape. The cards are set for a surprise result tonight, so my tip is Melzer to win. I expect the smart money to be on Melzer, so his odds will probably drop. Prediction: John Isner – Jurgen Melzer 4-6 6-7.

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Pick: Melzer
Odds: 3.00 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 14
Event date: 14 March