Millman – Federer

Roger Federer will face what should be an accessible 4th round clash at the US Open on Monday night, sandwiched between a tough 3rd round with Nick Kyrgios and a potential quarterfinal with Novak Djokovic.

Millman reaching the R16 here at the Open is definitely a susprise, as the Australian has never goten this far into a Grand Slam in his career, and he was also in very poor form coming into Flushing Meadows. Part of his performance can be explained by a rather easy draw (Brooksby, Fognini, Kukushkin), but Millman did play very good tennis. He lost just two sets in his three matches, one each against Fognini and Kukushkin, but his victory never looked in doubt in those matches.

Federer has won all his matches in straight sets and is playing solid tennis, even though the slower surface at the Open this year should work against him. Roger didn`t push too much in his first two matches against Nishika and Paire, doing just enough to win withoug letting things get out of control. He stepped on the gas in the third round, claiming an impressive 6-4 6-1 7-5 win against a dangerous Nick Kyrgios.

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Federer leads the H2H 1-0, winning the only meeting in three sets back at Brisbane in 2015, on hard courts.

The handicap line, which is set at 8 games in favor of Federer, does seem a bit high here. Roger is definitely expected to win the match, but it`s unlikely he will put his entire energy in it, especially as he will need all his resources for a potential quarterfinal clash against Djokovic.

Chances are Federer will attempt to cruise in his usual style, doing just enough to win each set. Only 3 of the 9 sets he played this year at the Open were won with a difference of more than 2 games. He did win clearly against Kyrgios, but Nick had his chances to make it tighter, and that was obviously a match in which Federer dug a bit deeper against such dangerous opposition.

Millman is playing some of the best tennis of his life and this will definitely be the biggest match of his career. He has a solid serve which should earn him some free points, so he has a good chances to keep it close against a Federer who will likely not be at 100%.

My tip is Millman to cover the +8.5 game handicap and I reckon a stake of 6 or 7 units is high enough on this one. Prediction: John Millman – Roger Federer 4-6 6-7 3-6.

Pick: Millman +8,5
Odds: 1.74 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.18
Event date: 4 September