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Guys, I’m dead tired, so I hope I’ll be able to convey my thoughts properly, without them becoming too convoluted. No worries though, I decided on this bet when i was sharp and focused :). We’re gonna talk about Millman vs Daniel in the ATP Belgrade second round.
I have watched both players these past two weeks and I just think there’s a difference in level right now. We know Millman is the better player, but he’s also performing like it. Clay isn’t his best surface, but that has not been visible lately.
The Australian got a great win last week in Monte Carlo against Humbert, quite a dominant and impressive performance. He also won on clay against Coria and this week in Belgrade against Petrovic. He is 3-2 on the red dirt, with his wins coming against Djere and Garin – you can’t hold that against him!
It’s quite surprising that Millman, who has been out of form all year, is getting his rhythm back on clay, but that’s what he’s doing. He’s playing great and looked sharp in the first round against Petrovic (7-5 6-4). Not the most dangerous opponent, but solid display by Millman.
Daniel is in a good moment for him right now, but it’s obvious his limits do not allow him to go any further. He’s grinding and winning some matches on challengers or qualifying draws, and showing good fight against some Top 100 guys, but at the end of the day he lost against pretty much every ATP level opponent he has met. Here in Belgrade he lost to Mager in the final round of qualifying (Mager playing below-par), but ended up being a lucky loser and got a favorable first round draw against the out of form Joao Sousa – winning 7-5 6-3.
I think the second round in Belgrade is one level too high for Daniel, and a Top 50 caliber player like Millman, in good form, should get past him. You can’t trust the Japanese to play an error free match. Millman should impose his tennis and force Daniel into errors more often than not. My tip is Millman to win. Prediction: John Millman – Taro Daniel 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Millman
Odds: 1.70 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.60
Event date: 22 April
