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John Patrick Smith and Jordan Thompson will square off in one of the least anticipated first round matches to be played at the beautiful ATP Newport event. A victory on the main draw would represent a great performance for whichever of these two players pulls it off.
Smith is currently outside the Top 150 ATP and he had a really poor season so far. The American has not won consecutive matches since February and lost 3 of his last 4. A good player on grass, Smith did not have much success on the green this season, losing 4 of his 6 matches despite playing low level events like challangers and Wimbledon qualies. He actually lost against today’s opponent, Thompson, in the second round at Surbiton a few weeks ago.
Jordon Thompson broke Top 100 this year, climbing more than 50 places in the rankings in just 6 months. He`s currently ranked 88th in the world, but despite his improvement, Thompson actually showed some inconsistency this year – alternating challenger finals and wins with first round exists. Right now the Australian is riding a 3 match losing streak, but he has been solid on grass, reaching the Surbiton semifinals where he almost defeated the excellent grass courter Yen Hsun Lu. He also reached the quarters at Ilkley challenger.
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Thompson leads the Head 2 Head 2-1 (1-0 on grass), but all matches between these two guys were ultra tight, with scores of 3-1 (2 tiebreaks), 3-2 (9-7 in decisive set) and 2-1. Both like to play on grass and Thopson won the last Head 2 Head meeting just a few weeks ago, on the same surface: 2-6 7-6 6-3.
Thompson is in better form and he deserves to be a favorite here. I would go as far as to say that the odds on him have some value. But looking at the Head 2 Head record and considering Thompson has lost some form recently, this looks like it will be another close match between these two.
Neither player is at a great level right now, so it`s fair to expect a lot of scrambling in a rather poor match, with errors from both sides and nobody being able to get a firm grip on the game in order to run away with it. Considering the fast courts here at Newport, which always make tiebreaks more likely, a bet on the over line seems like the way to go.
My tip is over 22 games to be played. The main line is at 23, but I will buy a point. Despite the lower odds, over 22 games provides money back in case of a potential 7-6 6-3, which is very important, so I will choose this safety line eve though I believe we will have 3 sets here. Still, if your bookie doesn`t have the 22 game line, a bet on over 23 is solid as well, with lower stakes. Prediction: John Patrick Smith – Jordan Thompson 4-6 7-6 4-6.
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Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.67 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.36
Event date: 12 July
