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Juan Martin Del Potro and Milos Raonic will square off on Wednesday night for the second time in space of one week, after Delpo easily defeated Raonic at Indian Wells. This time, they will play for a spot in the ATP Miami semifinals.
Del Potro has been the man to beat on the tour in the past month, as he won Acapulco in early March and had an incredible run to win Indian Wells last week (def. Raonic, Federer). He hasn`t slowed down after that one, and continued on the same note here in Miami. Del Potro cruised through the first rounds, playing top level tennis and claiming easy wins against the likes of Nishikori and Krajinovic in his last two matches. The Argentinean lost just 10 games in those two encounters.
After struggling with injuries and fitness early in the year, Raonic seems to be back on track right now. He has played much better in the last two weeks, and reaching the semifinals at Indian Wells and the QF`s in Miami is definitely a good performance. He will now try to replicate last week`s result and qualify for another semifinal. His performances this week will give him some confidence, as Raonic defeated Ymer, Schwartzman and Chardy without losing a set here in Miami.
Bet on Del Potro vs Raonic and claim your 100% (100 Eur) freebet at Ohmbet now!The H2H is tied at 2-2 (all meetings on hard), but Del Potro won the last match easily last week, 6-2 6-3. All in all, an analysis of the styles of play, H2H and matchup won`t say much here. Both players have the tools to beat eachoter and it will simply be a case of who is the better man on the day.
While Raonic is playing some really good tennis and seems back to full fitness, he doesn`t seem to be quite back at his absolute best in terms of his level of play. He did very well against average opposition in these last two weeks, but he was soundly beaten when he met a top opponent – which happened to be Del Potro. He was also very close to losing against Querrey last week in IW.
Del Potro on the other hand is really pumping on all cylinders, both tennis-wise and mentally. He`s playing some of his best tennis, and when that happens he is very hard to beat. His 6-2 6-3 destruction of Raonic last week doesn`t automatically mean he`ll win this one as well, but it is an indication of the difference between these two at the moment.
Opening odds for Del Potro for this match are around 1.40, which is only slightly lower than he had last week to defeat Raonic. What happended since then? Delpo blew Raonic off the court, went on to win the Indian Wells by beating Federer, and continued to play the best tennis on the tour. Raonic kept playing well himself, but without necessarily turning a corner in his performances.
Based on the above, a fair case can be made that even odds 1.40 for Del Potro might be too high here, and a more realistic price for a bet on him would be 1.30 – 1.35.
If Del Potro plays at the same level as in the last two weeks, he will win this match. The question however is if he can continue with the same intensity after having so many matches in the last 20 days or so.
While Del Potro is finally playing regular tennis and seems to be completely fit, fact is he had a lot of injuries in the last years, and missed a lot of time from the tour. He surely hasn`t been the fittest guy in the last years, so this must be taken into account as he is playing his 10th match in 18 days.
However, there has really been no sign of him slowing down, and his last two matches this week have been quick and easy. He should be fine coming into this clash. As such, I will take a calculated risk and tip Del Potro to win this one with reasonably high stakes. It might be closer than in Indian Wells, but Delpo should still have too much for Raonic yet again. Prediction: Juan Martin Del Potro – Milos Raonic 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Del Potro
Odds: 1.44 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 3.52
Event date: 29 March
